AILang/docs/specs/0047-bench-harness-recalibration.md

Bench harness recalibration — degate max_us / p99_9_us, re-capture baselines

Date: 2026-05-20 Status: Draft — awaiting user spec review Authors: Brummel (orchestrator) + Claude

Goal

End the recurring bench false-positive on no-op milestones by:

1. Removing the two structurally jitter-prone latency metrics (max_us, p99_9_us) from bench/baseline.json, so bench/check.py no longer gates them.
2. Re-capturing the remaining baselines from current HEAD, so the environmental drift accumulated since 2026-05-09 is absorbed in one honest cut rather than hidden under widened tolerances.

Closes Gitea #15 (*.bump_s baseline stale) and #16 (*.max_us structural false-positive). The two issues frame distinct symptoms, but reproduction on 2026-05-20 (HEAD 19321d8, two consecutive bench/check.py -n 5 runs, both regression-firing) showed:

• The latency false-positive in implicit_at_rc.max_us is no longer the stochastic +108%→ok-on-rerun spike #16 documented; it now reproduces deterministically at +47% / +49% across runs. p99_9_us on the same arm shows the same pattern (+28% / +42%). The metrics are now drift-elevated as well as jitter-prone.
• The throughput drift is wider than #15 framed it: gc_s on bench_hof_pipeline also fires (+10.6% / +10.9% across runs), and bench_list_sum.gc_s sits at +9.9% (just under the gate). Drift correlates with memory pressure / allocation density, not with metric family — bench_tree_walk and bench_compute_collatz are clean.

Both issues are therefore one milestone, addressed by one cohesive change.

Architecture

No code change. Two artefacts in the working tree:

File	Change
bench/baseline.json	Drop 6 entries (max_us + p99_9_us × 3 latency arms); regenerate every remaining baseline value from current HEAD via bench/check.py --update-baseline; update the top-level note field

bench/check.py is unmodified. The harness already iterates only the entries present in baseline.json (collect_measurements function, lines 177–220) — removing an entry removes it from both gating and the per-metric report, no further wiring needed.

bench/run.sh and bench/latency_harness.py are unmodified. The removed metrics continue to appear upstream in bench/run.sh output (the latency harness computes them independently of baseline.json); only the regression-check layer no longer sees them. A developer triaging a regression can still read max_us and p99.9 directly from the bench-run table.

Concrete code shapes

The artefact this milestone delivers — bench/baseline.json delta

Per latency arm, two entries are removed. Before (current implicit_at_rc, lines 85–91):

"implicit_at_rc": {
  "median_us":       { "baseline": 285.7,  "tolerance_pct": 15 },
  "p99_us":          { "baseline": 407.1,  "tolerance_pct": 20 },
  "p99_9_us":        { "baseline": 452.0,  "tolerance_pct": 25 },
  "max_us":          { "baseline": 477.3,  "tolerance_pct": 30 },
  "p99_over_median": { "baseline": 1.43,   "tolerance_pct": 20 }
}

After (same arm, the two unreliable metrics dropped; remaining baselines re-captured on 2026-05-20 hardware):

"implicit_at_rc": {
  "median_us":       { "baseline": <recaptured>, "tolerance_pct": 15 },
  "p99_us":          { "baseline": <recaptured>, "tolerance_pct": 20 },
  "p99_over_median": { "baseline": <recaptured>, "tolerance_pct": 20 }
}

Same shape for implicit_at_gc and explicit_at_rc. Total: 6 entries removed, all remaining latency + throughput baseline numbers refreshed.

Top-level note field updated to record the recapture date, the two removed metric families, and a one-line pointer to this spec and the closed issues.

The bench programs this milestone exists to serve

The infrastructure measures the existing AILang fixtures under examples/. Two representative ones — bench_list_sum.ail (allocation-intensive list workload, where the throughput drift reproduces) and bench_latency_implicit.ail (the RC-drop-latency workload, built by run.sh into the _rc variant where the removed max_us / p99_9_us live) — are the north-star programs this harness reports on. They are unchanged by this milestone; only the gating around them shifts.

Components

Only bench/baseline.json is touched. No Rust crate change, no runtime change, no CLI change.

Data flow

bench/run.sh → text table on stdout → bench/check.py parses → diffs against bench/baseline.json → exit code. The path is identical before and after. Removing entries from baseline.json means collect_measurements does not emit Measurement records for those metric names, so they neither appear in the report nor contribute to the regression count.

Error handling

None new. bench/check.py's existing "baselined metric not found in bench output" sys.exit(2) path continues to cover the case where the bench output format breaks. The removed metrics are not baselined, so their absence in output is not an error.

Testing strategy

Two acceptance checks, both run by hand at iter close:

1. Replay-pass. After the recapture commit lands, immediate bench/check.py run on the same HEAD returns exit 0 with zero REGRESSION rows. (The recapture writes baselines to today's measurement; a same-HEAD replay should fall inside every per-metric tolerance.)
2. Detection-still-works (synthetic injection). Temporarily patch bench/baseline.json to drop bench_list_sum.bump_s baseline by 50% (e.g. 0.046 → 0.023), re-run bench/check.py, confirm exit 1 and one REGRESSION row on that metric. Revert the patch. This protects against a recapture that accidentally inflates tolerances or removes gating beyond the intended two metric families.

No new automated test is introduced — the bench harness is an out-of-tree Python tool with no Rust test surface, and adding a test crate for it is scope-disproportionate for this iteration.

Acceptance criteria

• bench/baseline.json no longer contains any max_us or p99_9_us entry (verifiable: jq '.. | objects | keys' < bench/baseline.json | grep -E "max_us|p99_9_us" returns nothing).
• bench/baseline.json captured field reads 2026-05-20; note documents the removed metrics and links this spec.
• bench/check.py replay on the recapture HEAD exits 0 with 0 regressed.
• Synthetic injection test (Acceptance §2) confirms detection still fires on a plausible real regression.

Out of scope, explicitly:

• Histogram-based latency methodology rework (Gitea #19) — a separate brainstorm; this milestone is a stop-gap that buys back the noise floor.
• Latency-arm cpuset / isolcpus= pinning — sysadmin-layer fix that does not survive CI-move or new dev machine.
• tolerance_pct widening as a substitute for recapture — hides the drift rather than absorbing it honestly.
• Changes to bench/check.py, bench/run.sh, or bench/latency_harness.py.