From 14aadd1a67c294661001ee08aff15c1042d79c7a Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Brummel Date: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 12:13:18 +0200 Subject: [PATCH] docs(ledger): record the World's inferential-honesty gap as an open thread Family-selection across a sweep has no false-discovery control (no trials-deflation, plateau-over-peak, or cross-instrument generalization); recorded as the World's third unbuilt half. refs #144 #145 #146 #139 --- docs/design/INDEX.md | 18 ++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 18 insertions(+) diff --git a/docs/design/INDEX.md b/docs/design/INDEX.md index bdbc244..6e96105 100644 --- a/docs/design/INDEX.md +++ b/docs/design/INDEX.md @@ -1405,6 +1405,24 @@ load-bearing in the flat graph. the CLI itself* (a deliberate amendment to C17's no-DSL, C22's no-UI-topology, and C9's no-by-name-node-registry). Deferred by the user (2026-06-22); #109 is its durable home until promoted to a milestone seeded by that brainstorm. +- **Inferential honesty of the World — family-selection without false-discovery + control (tracked: milestone "Inferential validation (defend against false + discovery at sweep scale)", #144 / #145 / #146; adjacent #139).** The World's + massively-parallel sweep (C12 axes 1–2, C21) is aura's differentiator *and* its + most direct route to false discovery: `optimize` / `rank_by` select the single + best family member by a bare argmax, with no penalty for the number of + configurations tried, no preference for a robust parameter neighbourhood over a + sharp in-sample peak, and no cross-instrument generalization read; `mc` is a + descriptive seed-sweep, not an inferential significance test. The hygiene + invariants keep one backtest honest (C1 determinism, C2 no look-ahead); they do + **not** make a *selection across a family* honest. Recognized direction: the + selection/aggregation layer must deflate a winner for the family size (#144), + prefer a plateau over a peak (#145), and score cross-instrument generalization + (#146), with a per-candidate out-of-sample bootstrap as the adjacent + significance read (#139). Distinct from the two threads above — neither + orchestration *composability* (#109) nor a search *policy* (Bayesian/genetic), + but the statistical *validity* of the selection itself. Not a C-invariant until + built (the engine today violates it); recorded as the World's third unbuilt half. - **`aura-std` contents** — the crate exists (doc-only); which universal blocks land first follows the walking-skeleton's needs. - **`strategies/` split** — a later split, *inside a project*, of top-level