audit(0076): cycle close — drift addressed; ledger inferential-thread synced; drop ephemera

Architect drift review (c192dfd..a295905): drift_found, medium/low only — no
ledger or hot-path contract crossed. C23-additive, C1-deterministic, C14/C18
back-compat all verified green (full workspace suite + clippy). No regression
scripts configured (test+clippy are the gate).

Resolution:
- [medium] three spec-promised optimize_deflated tests were missing (the
  centring control, the all-noise high-p companion, the C2 IS-only read) — the
  centring was unprotected ("removing it would pass every test"). Plus an
  unguarded dispersion-floor sign assumption. FIXED in 0076.tidy (ecc9541).
- [low, RATIFY] the ledger's "Open architectural threads" inferential entry was
  stale on one fact (it described optimize as having no trials penalty). Synced:
  it now records that #144's trials-deflation landed this cycle (additive
  optimize_deflated, winner unchanged — C23; optimize/rank_by stay bare argmax),
  that #139's per-candidate OOS bootstrap landed in 0075, and that #145/#146
  remain open. This ratifies the cycle-0076 intent; the gap description is
  preserved for the still-open default-ranker path.

Deferred (spec 0076 Out of scope, not drift): n_eff effective-trials advisory,
reload-time recompute of the R-arm statistic, deflated-score re-ranking, CLI
flags for the resampling config.

Ephemeral spec + plan (docs/specs/0076-*, docs/plans/0076-*) removed per the
cycle-close convention. refs #144
This commit is contained in:
2026-06-26 15:01:51 +02:00
parent ecc9541a56
commit 9c6b9c7ea9
3 changed files with 13 additions and 1044 deletions
+13 -4
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@@ -1419,10 +1419,19 @@ load-bearing in the flat graph.
selection/aggregation layer must deflate a winner for the family size (#144),
prefer a plateau over a peak (#145), and score cross-instrument generalization
(#146), with a per-candidate out-of-sample bootstrap as the adjacent
significance read (#139). Distinct from the two threads above — neither
orchestration *composability* (#109) nor a search *policy* (Bayesian/genetic),
but the statistical *validity* of the selection itself. Not a C-invariant until
built (the engine today violates it); recorded as the World's third unbuilt half.
significance read (#139, landed cycle 0075). Distinct from the two threads above —
neither orchestration *composability* (#109) nor a search *policy* (Bayesian/
genetic), but the statistical *validity* of the selection itself. Not a
C-invariant until built; recorded as the World's third (now partly built) half.
**Status (cycle 0076):** the trials-deflation piece (#144) landed —
`optimize_deflated` (aura-registry) wraps `optimize` and records, additively on
the winning member's manifest (C18, the new `RunManifest.selection`), a deflated
score + an overfit probability for the family size, **without changing which
member wins** (C23; `optimize` / `rank_by` stay a bare argmax — the deflation is
recorded provenance, not a re-ranking). The R arm is a centred moving-block
reality-check (reusing the `r_bootstrap` kernel); the `total_pips` arm a
closed-form expected-max-of-K dispersion floor. #145 (plateau-over-peak) and #146
(cross-instrument generalization) remain open.
- **`aura-std` contents** — the crate exists (doc-only); which universal blocks
land first follows the walking-skeleton's needs.
- **`strategies/` split** — a later split, *inside a project*, of top-level