From dff99c93e438f22f4303984a1c90c5c8e17e2335 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Brummel <mould@mycelium.de>
Date: Mon, 29 Jun 2026 02:35:24 +0200
Subject: [PATCH] =?UTF-8?q?fieldtest(milestone):=20cost-model=20graph=20(#?=
 =?UTF-8?q?148)=20=E2=80=94=20capability=20delivered=20green?=
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Milestone-close gate for "Cost-model graph (in R)" (#148). The fieldtester exercised
the milestone capability end-to-end from the public CLI only (no implementation
source), on the stage1-r harness, against ledger C10 + the glossary.

Roll-up: friction_found — 0 capability bugs; the milestone promise is empirically
delivered:
- bare gross-R run is clean (net == gross, no cost forced);
- per-trade cost: gross pinned, net drops strictly/monotonically, net_r_equity tap
  persists;
- the capstone per-held-cycle carry BLEEDS the net-R curve continuously over a hold
  (the gross-net gap grows 0.367 -> 0.734 -> 1.101 -> 1.468 across one hold, vs the
  per-trade run's flat 0.367) — the holding-cost shape change, observable end-to-end;
- composition is exact-additive (the composed drag equals the sum of the single-cost
  drags to the last ULP) and `aura chart` renders the real net_r_equity series.

Evidence under fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/ (run_scenarios.sh +
captured_outputs.txt + traces/ + the charted bleed + FINDINGS.md).

Non-blocking findings filed forward (none gates the close):
- cost-flag CLI ergonomics — units hint, negative-rate diagnostic, non-R-harness
  no-op + a C10 spec_gap -> #153;
- docs/project-layout.md describes the retired `aura backtest --broker` path and omits
  the cost flags -> folded into #151.

refs #148
---
 .../milestone-cost-model-graph/FINDINGS.md    | 210 ++++++++++++++++
 .../captured_outputs.txt                      |  27 ++
 .../chart_carry_net_r_equity.html             | 235 ++++++++++++++++++
 .../run_scenarios.sh                          |  53 ++++
 .../traces/carry_cost_net_r_equity.json       |   1 +
 .../traces/carry_cost_r_equity.json           |   1 +
 .../traces/composed_cost_net_r_equity.json    |   1 +
 .../traces/composed_cost_r_equity.json        |   1 +
 .../traces/pertrade_cost_net_r_equity.json    |   1 +
 .../traces/pertrade_cost_r_equity.json        |   1 +
 10 files changed, 531 insertions(+)
 create mode 100644 fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/FINDINGS.md
 create mode 100644 fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/captured_outputs.txt
 create mode 100644 fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/chart_carry_net_r_equity.html
 create mode 100755 fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/run_scenarios.sh
 create mode 100644 fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/traces/carry_cost_net_r_equity.json
 create mode 100644 fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/traces/carry_cost_r_equity.json
 create mode 100644 fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/traces/composed_cost_net_r_equity.json
 create mode 100644 fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/traces/composed_cost_r_equity.json
 create mode 100644 fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/traces/pertrade_cost_net_r_equity.json
 create mode 100644 fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/traces/pertrade_cost_r_equity.json

diff --git a/fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/FINDINGS.md b/fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/FINDINGS.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..cb99238
--- /dev/null
+++ b/fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/FINDINGS.md
@@ -0,0 +1,210 @@
+# Fieldtest — milestone #148 "Cost-model graph (in R)" — 2026-06-29
+
+**Status:** Draft — awaiting orchestrator triage
+**Author:** fieldtester (dispatched by fieldtest skill, milestone-close gate)
+
+## Scope
+
+Milestone #148 promises a composable **cost-model graph in R**: a strategy's
+gross-R signal is turned into a **net-R** curve by composing cost nodes, each a
+labelled stress parameter, on the `stage1-r` harness. The capability must span
+**both** charge modes — per-trade costs (deduct at close) and per-held-cycle
+costs (accrue over the hold) — so a research user can measure how much friction
+costs their edge and see whether a holding cost changes the **shape** of the
+equity curve. Shipped across cycles 0081–0085: `ConstantCost`, the `net_r_equity`
+tap + `summarize_r` cost fold, `VolSlippageCost` + `CostSum`, the `CostNode`
+trait, the `cost_graph` composite-builder, and per-held-cycle accrual
+(`CarryCost` + `ChargeMode`). Public surface exercised: the `aura` CLI
+(`run --harness stage1-r` with `--cost-per-trade` / `--slip-vol-mult` /
+`--carry-per-cycle`, `--trace`, `chart --tap`), against the design ledger C10 and
+the glossary. Binary exercised: `target/debug/aura` freshly built from HEAD
+(`cargo build --workspace`, commit 84ec2ab).
+
+The milestone promise is **delivered**: all four end-to-end scenarios behave as
+the contract states, including the capstone holding-cost shape change and exact
+cost composition. No capability bug. The findings are doc/diagnostic friction at
+the public surface and one undefined-behaviour spec_gap; none blocks the close.
+
+## Examples
+
+All under `fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/`. `run_scenarios.sh` reproduces
+every command; `captured_outputs.txt` is its recorded output; `traces/` holds the
+`r_equity` / `net_r_equity` series the runs persisted (the `runs/` store is
+gitignored); `chart_carry_net_r_equity.html` is the charted capstone bleed.
+
+### run_scenarios.sh §1 — bare gross-R, no cost model
+- `aura run --harness stage1-r` with no cost flag.
+- Fits scope: the zero-cost floor — C10's "a bare gross-R run with no cost model
+  attached is valid", the additive-on baseline every cost composes onto.
+- Outcome: ran; `expectancy_r` = `net_expectancy_r` = `1.2710005136982836`
+  exactly (net == gross when no cost is attached). Clean.
+
+### run_scenarios.sh §2 — flat per-trade cost (ConstantCost, deduct at close)
+- `aura run --harness stage1-r --cost-per-trade {0.0001,0.001,0.01}`, plus a
+  `--trace pertrade_cost` run.
+- Fits scope: the per-trade charge mode (cycle 0081), "how much does friction
+  cost my edge?".
+- Outcome: ran; gross `expectancy_r` stays pinned at `1.2710005136982836`
+  while `net_expectancy_r` drops strictly and monotonically with cost
+  (`1.2402` → `0.9632` → `-1.8069`); the `net_r_equity` tap persists under
+  `--trace`. Matched expected.
+
+### run_scenarios.sh §3 — per-held-cycle carry (CarryCost, accrue over hold) — capstone
+- `aura run --harness stage1-r --carry-per-cycle 0.001 --trace carry_cost`.
+- Fits scope: the milestone capstone (cycle 0085) — the per-held-cycle charge
+  mode; "does a holding cost change the SHAPE of the curve?".
+- Outcome: ran; `net_expectancy_r` = `-0.2679604926492904`. The `net_r_equity`
+  gap (gross − net) **grows continuously over a single hold** — ts4..ts7:
+  `0.367 → 0.734 → 1.101 → 1.468` — versus the per-trade run's **flat** `0.367`
+  over the same hold. The holding cost bleeds the curve continuously rather than
+  stepping at close. Matched expected exactly.
+
+### run_scenarios.sh §4 — compose all three costs + chart
+- `aura run --harness stage1-r --cost-per-trade 0.001 --slip-vol-mult 0.5
+  --carry-per-cycle 0.001 --trace composed_cost`, each single cost alone for
+  contrast, then `aura chart composed/carry --tap net_r_equity`.
+- Fits scope: the cost graph **composes** (cycles 0082/0084) — N cost nodes sum
+  into one net-R curve via `CostSum`/`cost_graph`.
+- Outcome: ran; composed `net_expectancy_r` = `-1.2927895081922123`, strictly
+  below every single cost alone (`0.5540` slip, `0.9632` per-trade, `-0.2680`
+  carry). The composed net-R drag (`gross − composed = 2.5637900218904959`)
+  equals the **exact** sum of the three single-cost drags
+  (`0.30779220 + 0.71703681 + 1.53896101 = 2.56379002`, agreeing to the last
+  ULP). The chart HTML bakes the real `net_r_equity` points array in (uPlot), so
+  the bleed renders — not a shell. Matched expected.
+
+## Findings
+
+### [working] Gross-only run is clean: net == gross with no cost
+- run_scenarios.sh §1.
+- `net_expectancy_r` is byte-equal to `expectancy_r` (`1.2710005136982836`) and
+  no `net_r_equity` is forced; the cost layer is genuinely optional and additive
+  (C10 "the zero-cost baseline is the default-simple floor").
+- Why working: the optional-cost contract holds exactly; the win to protect is
+  that attaching no cost changes nothing.
+- Recommended action: carry-on.
+
+### [working] Per-trade cost: gross pinned, net drops monotonically, tap persists
+- run_scenarios.sh §2.
+- Across three magnitudes gross `expectancy_r` never moves; `net_expectancy_r`
+  is strictly below it and monotone decreasing; `runs/traces/pertrade_cost/`
+  contains a `net_r_equity.json` sibling of `r_equity.json`.
+- Why working: the per-trade charge mode + the gross/net split + the named tap
+  all behave as C10 / the glossary describe, first try.
+- Recommended action: carry-on.
+
+### [working] Capstone — holding cost bleeds the curve continuously over the hold
+- run_scenarios.sh §3 (+ `traces/carry_cost_net_r_equity.json`).
+- The gross−net gap during the cycles-4..7 hold grows linearly
+  (`0.367, 0.734, 1.101, 1.468`), where the per-trade run's gap over the same
+  hold is flat (`0.367, 0.367, 0.367, 0.367`). The per-held-cycle accrual makes
+  the net-R equity curve bleed continuously across a hold instead of stepping at
+  close — the milestone's headline "shape change", directly observable in the
+  persisted series.
+- Why working: this is the milestone capstone (cycle 0085, approach B) and it is
+  empirically true end-to-end from the CLI, not merely asserted in a unit test.
+- Recommended action: carry-on.
+
+### [working] Composition is exact-additive and the chart renders the bleed
+- run_scenarios.sh §4 (+ `chart_carry_net_r_equity.html`,
+  `traces/composed_cost_*.json`).
+- Three heterogeneous cost factors (per-trade + state-dependent slippage +
+  per-held-cycle carry) sum into one net-R curve; the composed drag equals the
+  exact sum of the single-cost drags (to the last ULP) and composed net is
+  strictly below every single. `aura chart` emits a self-contained HTML page with
+  the actual `net_r_equity` points array embedded.
+- Why working: `CostSum` / `cost_graph` "one home for cost, no double-count"
+  (C10) is exact, the flags compose as the usage string implies, and the headline
+  artifact charts as a real result render (matching the "render results, not a
+  shell" rule).
+- Recommended action: carry-on.
+
+### [friction] Negative cost-rate guard prints the bare usage string, names no cause
+- `aura run --harness stage1-r --carry-per-cycle -0.001` (and `--cost-per-trade
+  -0.5`).
+- Verbatim: `aura: usage: aura run [--harness <sma|macd|stage1-r>] ...` then
+  `exit=2`. The guard correctly refuses a negative rate (capability-safe, per the
+  commit-noted "negative-rate guard"), but the diagnostic is the entire 1-line
+  usage dump — it never says *why* (e.g. "cost rate must be ≥ 0"), and the usage
+  string itself never states the non-negativity constraint, so a user who
+  fat-fingers a sign cannot tell a rejected value from a mistyped flag name.
+- Why friction: the task is refused correctly but the surface gives an
+  uninformative diagnostic that names no cause.
+- Recommended action: plan (a tidy iteration: emit `cost rate must be
+  non-negative, got <v>` instead of the generic usage dump).
+
+### [friction] Cost flags silently no-op on a non-R harness (sma / macd)
+- `aura run --harness sma --cost-per-trade 0.001` → `exit=0`, output
+  byte-identical to the no-cost `sma` run (`"total_pips":-0.13000000000001358`,
+  no `r` block, no `net_*`, no warning).
+- Why friction: a cost flag attached to a harness that has no R-evaluator /
+  executor chain is silently swallowed; a user who believes they measured a
+  cost-adjusted result got an unmodified one with no signal that the flag did
+  nothing. (Distinct from the spec_gap below: this entry is the missing-feedback
+  foot-gun, regardless of which behaviour is chosen.)
+- Recommended action: plan (warn-on-ignored-cost-flag, or reject the
+  combination).
+
+### [spec_gap] Cost-flag-on-non-R-harness behaviour is undefined by the ledger
+- Same repro as the friction above (`--cost-per-trade` on `--harness sma`).
+- C10 / the glossary define cost only against the R chain (gross R → net R) and
+  say a bare gross-R run with no cost is valid; neither constrains what a cost
+  flag should do on a harness (`sma` / `macd`) that produces *no* R at all. The
+  project picked the "silently accept and ignore" reading; "reject: cost requires
+  an R-evaluator harness" was equally plausible. I did not have to guess to
+  complete the milestone scenarios (they all use `stage1-r`), but a downstream
+  user mixing flags hits an unspecified corner.
+- Why spec_gap: the ledger is silent on the case and the project chose one of two
+  equally-plausible readings.
+- Recommended action: ratify (pick error-vs-noop and add a one-line C10 note;
+  pairs with the friction fix above).
+
+### [friction] Cost-flag units / scale are undiscoverable at the CLI
+- All scenarios. The usage string offers only `[--cost-per-trade <f64>]
+  [--slip-vol-mult <f64>] [--carry-per-cycle <f64>]` — no unit, no
+  per-close-vs-per-held-cycle note, no scale guidance. I had to trial
+  `0.0001 / 0.001 / 0.01` to find a magnitude that moved net-R sensibly, because
+  the R-normalizer (the stop distance `|entry − stop|`, the denominator of
+  `cost-in-R = cost_per_trade / |entry − stop|`) is not surfaced anywhere a CLI
+  user can see, and `--carry-per-cycle`'s unit (price units, **per engine cycle**
+  — not per day / not an overnight swap) is invisible. The semantics *are* in
+  C10 and the glossary "cost model" entry, so the capability is discoverable in
+  the ledger — just not at the point of use.
+- Why friction: the surface forced a trial-and-error dance to choose a sensible
+  stress-parameter value that a one-line units hint would have removed.
+- Recommended action: plan / docwriter (a per-flag units note in the usage
+  string: "price units, charged in R as cost/|entry−stop|; --carry-per-cycle is
+  per engine cycle").
+
+### [friction] The public "how aura is used" doc describes the retired pre-reframe path
+- `docs/project-layout.md` (the only public usage doc) — its "day in the life"
+  still says `aura backtest … --broker pepperstone` yields a "realistic currency
+  curve" alongside an "exposure stream" from a "realistic broker". All three —
+  `aura backtest`, the `--broker` realistic broker, the exposure framing — are
+  **retired** by the 2026-06-28 C10 reframe; the actual surface is
+  `aura run --harness stage1-r --cost-per-trade …` producing net-R, which the doc
+  never mentions. A downstream user reading it to learn how to charge cost is
+  pointed at a path that no longer exists and never told about the cost flags.
+- Why friction: a public-surface document that actively misleads about the
+  shipped capability (doc rot, not a ledger gap — C10 itself is current).
+- Recommended action: plan / docwriter (refresh `project-layout.md` to the
+  post-reframe `aura run` + cost-flag surface).
+
+## Recommendation summary
+
+| Finding | Class | Action |
+|---|---|---|
+| Gross-only run clean (net == gross) | working | carry-on |
+| Per-trade: gross pinned, net monotone, tap persists | working | carry-on |
+| Capstone: holding cost bleeds over the hold | working | carry-on |
+| Composition exact-additive + chart renders | working | carry-on |
+| Negative-rate guard prints bare usage, no cause | friction | plan |
+| Cost flags silently no-op on sma/macd | friction | plan |
+| Cost-flag-on-non-R-harness undefined by ledger | spec_gap | ratify |
+| Cost-flag units/scale undiscoverable at CLI | friction | plan / docwriter |
+| project-layout.md describes the retired path | friction | plan / docwriter |
+
+**Milestone-close roll-up:** `friction_found`. The capability is delivered
+end-to-end (both charge modes, composition, the holding-cost shape change); no
+capability bug blocks the close. All findings are doc / diagnostic friction or an
+undefined-corner spec_gap — non-gating for the milestone close.
diff --git a/fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/captured_outputs.txt b/fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/captured_outputs.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..993fe1c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/captured_outputs.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
+### Scenario 1 — bare gross-R, NO cost model (the zero-cost floor)
+"expectancy_r":1.2710005136982836
+"net_expectancy_r":1.2710005136982836
+
+### Scenario 2 — flat per-trade cost (ConstantCost, deduct AT CLOSE)
+# gross expectancy_r is fixed; net_expectancy_r drops monotonically with cost:
+  --cost-per-trade 0.0001 -> "expectancy_r":1.2710005136982836 "net_expectancy_r":1.240221293571332 
+  --cost-per-trade 0.001 -> "expectancy_r":1.2710005136982836 "net_expectancy_r":0.9632083124287688 
+  --cost-per-trade 0.01 -> "expectancy_r":1.2710005136982836 "net_expectancy_r":-1.8069214989968643 
+
+### Scenario 3 — per-HELD-CYCLE carry (CarryCost, ACCRUE over the hold) — the capstone
+"expectancy_r":1.2710005136982836
+"net_expectancy_r":-0.2679604926492904
+
+### Scenario 4 — compose all three costs into ONE net-R curve
+  slip-vol-mult 0.5  alone -> "expectancy_r":1.2710005136982836 "net_expectancy_r":0.5539636994248766 
+  cost-per-trade 0.001 alone -> "expectancy_r":1.2710005136982836 "net_expectancy_r":0.9632083124287688 
+  carry-per-cycle 0.001 alone -> "expectancy_r":1.2710005136982836 "net_expectancy_r":-0.2679604926492904 
+  ALL THREE composed         -> "expectancy_r":1.2710005136982836 "net_expectancy_r":-1.2927895081922123 
+
+### Chart the bleed (self-contained HTML, series baked in):
+  ./target/debug/aura chart carry_cost --tap net_r_equity > chart_carry_net_r_equity.html
+
+### Probes (robustness + foot-guns)
+  negative carry rate -> exit=2 (guard: refused)
+  cost flag on --harness sma (no R block) -> "total_pips":-0.13000000000001358
+  ^ exit=0, cost flag SILENTLY IGNORED (no net block, no warning)
diff --git a/fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/chart_carry_net_r_equity.html b/fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/chart_carry_net_r_equity.html
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..5ebd079
--- /dev/null
+++ b/fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/chart_carry_net_r_equity.html
@@ -0,0 +1,235 @@
+<!doctype html>
+<html lang="en">
+<head>
+<meta charset="utf-8">
+<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
+<title>aura chart</title>
+<style>
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+</head>
+<body>
+<header>
+  <b>aura chart</b>
+  <span class="sub">timestamp-aligned trace series</span>
+  <span id="ctx" class="sub"></span>
+  <button id="xmode-toggle" type="button">x: collapsed (gaps off)</button>
+</header>
+<div id="stage"></div>
+<pre id="err"></pre>
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+#xmode-toggle { margin-left: auto; background: #1e1e2e; color: #cdd6f4;
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T,E,z=p.pxRound,D=t,P=n*y,A=r*y,W=u*y;0==x.ori?[T,E]=o(l,e):[E,T]=o(l,e);const Y=x.dir*(0==x.ori?1:-1);let C,H,F,R=0==x.ori?Tt:Et,G=0==x.ori?f:(l,e,t,n,i,o,s)=>{f(l,e,t,i,n,s,o)},I=Q(l.bands,Fl).find((l=>l.series[0]==e)),L=p.fillTo(l,e,p.min,p.max,null!=I?I.dir:0),O=z(b(L,w,S,k)),N=M,j=z(p.width*y),U=!1,V=null,B=null,$=null,J=null;null==c||0!=j&&null==h||(U=!0,V=c.values(l,e,i,d),B=new Map,new Set(V).forEach((l=>{null!=l&&B.set(l,new Path2D)})),j>0&&($=h.values(l,e,i,d),J=new Map,new Set($).forEach((l=>{null!=l&&J.set(l,new Path2D)}))));let{x0:q,size:K}=a;if(null!=q&&null!=K){D=1,m=q.values(l,e,i,d),2==q.unit&&(m=m.map((e=>l.posToVal(v+e*M,x.key,!0))));let t=K.values(l,e,i,d);H=2==K.unit?t[0]*M:_(t[0],x,M,v)-_(0,x,M,v),N=Rt(m,g,_,x,M,v,N),F=N-H+P}else N=Rt(m,g,_,x,M,v,N),F=N*s+P,H=N-F;1>F&&(F=0),H/2>j||(j=0),5>F&&(z=vl);let X=F>0;H=z(wl(N-F-(X?j:0),W,A)),C=(0==D?H/2:D==Y?0:H)-D*Y*((0==D?P/2:0)+(X?j/2:0));const Z={stroke:null,fill:null,clip:null,band:null,gaps:null,flags:0},ll=U?null:new Path2D;let el=null;if(null!=I)el=l.data[I.series[1]];else{let{y0:t,y1:n}=a;null!=t&&null!=n&&(g=n.values(l,e,i,d),el=t.values(l,e,i,d))}let tl=T*H,nl=E*H;for(let t=1==Y?i:d;t>=i&&d>=t;t+=Y){let n=g[t];if(null==n)continue;if(null!=el){let l=el[t]??0;if(n-l==0)continue;O=b(l,w,S,k)}let i=_(2!=x.distr||null!=a?m[t]:t,x,M,v),o=b(Q(n,L),w,S,k),s=z(i-C),r=z(fl(o,O)),u=z(al(o,O)),f=r-u;if(null!=n){let i=0>n?nl:tl,o=0>n?tl:nl;U?(j>0&&null!=$[t]&&R(J.get($[t]),s,u+sl(j/2),H,fl(0,f-j),i,o),null!=V[t]&&R(B.get(V[t]),s,u+sl(j/2),H,fl(0,f-j),i,o)):R(ll,s,u+sl(j/2),H,fl(0,f-j),i,o),G(l,e,t,s-j/2,u,H+j,f)}}return j>0?Z.stroke=U?J:ll:U||(Z._fill=0==p.width?p._fill:p._stroke??p._fill,Z.width=0),Z.fill=U?B:ll,Z}))},l.spline=function(l){return function(l,e){const t=Q(e?.alignGaps,0);return(e,n,i,o)=>pt(e,n,((s,r,u,a,f,c,h,d,p,m,g)=>{[i,o]=U(u,i,o);let x,w,_,b=s.pxRound,v=l=>b(c(l,a,m,d)),k=l=>b(h(l,f,g,p));0==a.ori?(x=kt,_=Mt,w=Pt):(x=yt,_=St,w=At);const y=a.dir*(0==a.ori?1:-1);let M=v(r[1==y?i:o]),S=M,T=[],E=[];for(let l=1==y?i:o;l>=i&&o>=l;l+=y)if(null!=u[l]){let e=v(r[l]);T.push(S=e),E.push(k(u[l]))}const z={stroke:l(T,E,x,_,w,b),fill:null,clip:null,band:null,gaps:null,flags:1},D=z.stroke;let[P,A]=mt(e,n);if(null!=s.fill||0!=P){let l=z.fill=new Path2D(D),t=k(s.fillTo(e,n,s.min,s.max,P));_(l,S,t),_(l,M,t)}if(!s.spanGaps){let l=[];l.push(..._t(r,u,i,o,y,v,t)),z.gaps=l=s.gaps(e,n,i,o,l),z.clip=wt(l,a.ori,d,p,m,g)}return 0!=A&&(z.band=2==A?[xt(e,n,i,o,D,-1),xt(e,n,i,o,D,1)]:xt(e,n,i,o,D,A)),z}))}(Gt,l)}}return en}();
+</script>
+<script>window.AURA_TRACES = {"meta":{"broker":"sim-optimal+risk-executor(pip_size=0.0001)","commit":"84ec2ab5d1a1c1da1029105e4ac8ba5067f92a07","kind":"run","members":null,"name":"carry_cost","params":[["sma_fast","2"],["sma_slow","4"],["bias_scale","0.5"],["stop_length","3"],["stop_k","2"]],"seed":0,"taps":["net_r_equity"],"window":[1,18]},"mode":"overlay","series":[{"name":"net_r_equity","points":[0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.3669467403225998,0.1100840220967938,0.7705881546774724,0.14677869612907357,-2.8621845745162613,-0.6008033210184802,-0.2996403432174498,-0.1992526839504214,-0.6509971506519545,-2.608556506358702,-0.9566118356071224,-0.590058977225036,-0.37623647650213865,-0.34569040497026826,-0.8038814779478711],"y_scale_id":"y_3"}],"xs":[1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18]};</script>
+<script>// The `aura chart` viewer: turns the injected window.AURA_TRACES (xs + per-series
+// Option<f64> points, already timestamp-union-aligned by the CLI) into uPlot charts.
+//
+// buildCharts is PURE (no DOM, no uPlot) and is the unit the headless guard drives.
+// mount() is browser-only — it instantiates the vendored global `uPlot` per config.
+(function () {
+  var PALETTE = ["#89b4fa", "#f38ba8", "#a6e3a1", "#f9e2af", "#cba6f7", "#94e2d5"];
+
+  // {xs, series:[{name, y_scale_id, points}]} + mode + xMode -> array of {opts, data}.
+  // xMode in {"ordinal","continuous"}, default "ordinal". ordinal: data[0] is the index
+  // spine [0..n-1] (gaps collapse) and the x-axis/legend map an index back to the real
+  // xs[i]; continuous: data[0] is xs. series points (data[1..]) are untouched either way
+  // (null gaps preserved verbatim). overlay -> one chart; panels -> one chart per series,
+  // sharing a cursor.sync key so the crosshair lines up. Mouse interaction is uPlot's
+  // default (drag = box-zoom on x, double-click = reset); we add no custom wheel/pan
+  // (the hand-rolled version was glitchy — uPlot is not built for it).
+  function buildCharts(traces, mode, xMode) {
+    xMode = xMode || "ordinal";
+    var xs = traces.xs;
+    var n = xs.length;
+    var idx = [];
+    for (var k = 0; k < n; k++) idx.push(k);
+    var ordinal = xMode !== "continuous";
+    var xData = ordinal ? idx : xs;
+
+    // map an x-position to its real-timestamp label (total; no epoch assumption):
+    // ordinal -> position is an index -> xs[round(pos)]; continuous -> position IS the ts.
+    function xLabel(pos) {
+      if (!ordinal) return String(pos);
+      var j = Math.max(0, Math.min(n - 1, Math.round(pos)));
+      return String(xs[j]);
+    }
+    function xAxisCfg() { return ordinal ? { values: function (u, splits) { return splits.map(xLabel); } } : {}; }
+    function xSeriesCfg() { return { value: function (u, v) { return v == null ? "--" : xLabel(v); } }; }
+
+    if (mode === "panels") {
+      var SYNC = "aura-x"; // shared key -> crosshair sync across panels
+      return traces.series.map(function (s, i) {
+        return {
+          opts: {
+            title: s.name,
+            scales: { x: { time: false }, [s.y_scale_id]: {} },
+            series: [xSeriesCfg(), { label: s.name, scale: s.y_scale_id, stroke: PALETTE[i % PALETTE.length] }],
+            axes: [xAxisCfg(), { scale: s.y_scale_id }],
+            cursor: { sync: { key: SYNC } },
+          },
+          data: [xData, s.points],
+        };
+      });
+    }
+
+    // overlay (default)
+    var scales = { x: { time: false } };
+    var uSeries = [xSeriesCfg()];
+    var axes = [xAxisCfg()];
+    traces.series.forEach(function (s, i) {
+      scales[s.y_scale_id] = {};
+      uSeries.push({ label: s.name, scale: s.y_scale_id, stroke: PALETTE[i % PALETTE.length] });
+      // the first two series carry a drawn axis (left, then right); the rest keep their
+      // own auto-scale, read via the legend.
+      if (i < 2) axes.push({ scale: s.y_scale_id, side: i === 0 ? 3 : 1 });
+    });
+    return [{
+      opts: { scales: scales, series: uSeries, axes: axes },
+      data: [xData].concat(traces.series.map(function (s) { return s.points; })),
+    }];
+  }
+
+  // Pure: the next x-range {min,max} for a key, given the current range [lo,hi], the zoom
+  // anchor (the x-value to keep fixed — the cursor position), and the full data extent
+  // [first,last]. Returns null for a non-chart key. Zoom keeps `anchor` at the same
+  // relative position in the new range, so the point under the cursor stays put (zoom
+  // toward cursor); arrows pan by 15% of the span; 0/Home resets to the extent.
+  function keyXRange(key, lo, hi, anchor, ext) {
+    var span = hi - lo;
+    var PAN = 0.15, ZIN = 0.8, ZOUT = 1.25;
+    switch (key) {
+      case "ArrowLeft":  return { min: lo - span * PAN, max: hi - span * PAN };
+      case "ArrowRight": return { min: lo + span * PAN, max: hi + span * PAN };
+      case "+":
+      case "=":          return { min: anchor - (anchor - lo) * ZIN,  max: anchor + (hi - anchor) * ZIN };
+      case "-":
+      case "_":          return { min: anchor - (anchor - lo) * ZOUT, max: anchor + (hi - anchor) * ZOUT };
+      case "0":
+      case "Home":       return { min: ext[0], max: ext[1] };
+      default:           return null;
+    }
+  }
+
+  // {kind,name,commit,window:[from,to],broker,seed,taps,members,params} -> array of
+  // {label,value} chips. PURE (no DOM), the unit the headless guard drives; mount()
+  // renders the chips into the header's #ctx slot. Absent/empty meta -> [].
+  function buildHeader(meta) {
+    if (!meta) return [];
+    function fmtDay(ns) { return new Date(ns / 1e6).toISOString().slice(0, 10); }
+    var chips = [];
+    chips.push({ label: meta.kind === "family" ? "family" : "run", value: meta.name });
+    if (meta.members != null) chips.push({ label: "members", value: String(meta.members) });
+    if (meta.taps && meta.taps.length) chips.push({ label: "tap", value: meta.taps.join(", ") });
+    if (meta.broker) chips.push({ label: "broker", value: meta.broker });
+    if (meta.window) chips.push({ label: "window", value: fmtDay(meta.window[0]) + "→" + fmtDay(meta.window[1]) });
+    if (meta.seed) chips.push({ label: "seed", value: String(meta.seed) });
+    if (meta.commit) chips.push({ label: "commit", value: String(meta.commit).slice(0, 7) });
+    if (meta.params && meta.params.length)
+      chips.push({ label: "params", value: meta.params.map(function (p) { return p[0] + "=" + p[1]; }).join(" ") });
+    return chips;
+  }
+
+  // Browser-only: instantiate the vendored global uPlot per config into #stage, wire the
+  // header #xmode-toggle to flip the x spine, and add keyboard control (discrete, so it
+  // sidesteps the glitchy pointer drag): arrows pan, +/- zoom toward the cursor, 0/Home
+  // reset, x toggles. Keys drive every chart together (panels stay x-aligned).
+  function mount() {
+    var traces = window.AURA_TRACES;
+    var stage = document.getElementById("stage");
+    var toggle = document.getElementById("xmode-toggle");
+    var ctx = document.getElementById("ctx");
+    if (ctx) {
+      ctx.innerHTML = "";
+      buildHeader(traces.meta).forEach(function (c) {
+        var span = document.createElement("span");
+        var b = document.createElement("b");
+        b.textContent = c.label + " ";
+        span.appendChild(b);
+        span.appendChild(document.createTextNode(c.value));
+        span.style.marginRight = "12px";
+        ctx.appendChild(span);
+      });
+    }
+    var xMode = "ordinal";
+    var insts = [];
+    var anchorVal = 0, anchorActive = false; // x-value under the mouse, for zoom-to-cursor
+    // The ordinal ("collapsed") label is authored once, server-side, as the button's
+    // initial text (render.rs CHART_HEAD) — read it back rather than re-hardcoding the
+    // same string here, so the served page carries that label exactly once.
+    var labelOrdinal = toggle ? toggle.textContent : "";
+    var labelContinuous = "x: continuous (real time)";
+
+    function flip() { xMode = xMode === "ordinal" ? "continuous" : "ordinal"; render(); }
+
+    function render() {
+      insts.forEach(function (u) { u.destroy(); });
+      insts = [];
+      stage.innerHTML = "";
+      var configs = buildCharts(traces, traces.mode, xMode);
+      var w = stage.clientWidth || 900;
+      var h = configs.length > 1 ? Math.max(160, Math.floor(440 / configs.length)) : 460;
+      configs.forEach(function (cfg) {
+        // eslint-disable-next-line no-undef
+        var u = new uPlot(Object.assign({ width: w, height: h }, cfg.opts), cfg.data, stage);
+        insts.push(u);
+        // track the x-value under the cursor so keyboard zoom can anchor on it
+        u.over.addEventListener("mousemove", function (e) { anchorVal = u.posToVal(e.offsetX, "x"); anchorActive = true; });
+        u.over.addEventListener("mouseleave", function () { anchorActive = false; });
+      });
+      if (toggle) toggle.textContent = xMode === "ordinal" ? labelOrdinal : labelContinuous;
+    }
+
+    if (toggle) toggle.addEventListener("click", flip);
+
+    // Keyboard control. Ctrl/Cmd/Alt combos pass through (browser zoom etc.). The zoom
+    // anchor is the cursor's x-value when the mouse is over a chart, else the centre.
+    document.addEventListener("keydown", function (e) {
+      if (e.ctrlKey || e.metaKey || e.altKey || !insts.length) return;
+      if (e.key === "x" || e.key === "X") { e.preventDefault(); flip(); return; }
+      var u0 = insts[0];
+      var lo = u0.scales.x.min, hi = u0.scales.x.max;
+      var anchor = anchorActive ? anchorVal : (lo + hi) / 2;
+      var d0 = u0.data[0];
+      var r = keyXRange(e.key, lo, hi, anchor, [d0[0], d0[d0.length - 1]]);
+      if (!r) return;
+      e.preventDefault();
+      insts.forEach(function (u) { u.setScale("x", { min: r.min, max: r.max }); });
+    });
+
+    render();
+  }
+
+  if (typeof window !== "undefined" && typeof document !== "undefined" && window.AURA_TRACES) {
+    if (document.readyState === "loading") document.addEventListener("DOMContentLoaded", mount);
+    else mount();
+  }
+  if (typeof module !== "undefined" && module.exports) module.exports = { buildCharts: buildCharts, keyXRange: keyXRange, buildHeader: buildHeader };
+})();
+</script>
+</body>
+</html>
diff --git a/fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/run_scenarios.sh b/fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/run_scenarios.sh
new file mode 100755
index 0000000..5e863d1
--- /dev/null
+++ b/fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/run_scenarios.sh
@@ -0,0 +1,53 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env bash
+# Milestone fieldtest — "Cost-model graph (in R)" (#148).
+#
+# Downstream-consumer reproduction: a research user with ONLY the public
+# interface (the `aura` CLI, the design ledger C10, the glossary) investigating
+# how much friction costs their edge on the stage1-r harness — and whether a
+# HOLDING cost changes the SHAPE of the net-R equity curve.
+#
+# Run from the repo root after `cargo build -p aura-cli`:
+#   bash fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/run_scenarios.sh
+#
+# net_expectancy_r is the headline net-R scalar; expectancy_r is gross R.
+# The full per-cycle net-R curve is the `net_r_equity` tap (persisted with --trace).
+set -u
+AURA=./target/debug/aura
+nr() { grep -oE '"(expectancy_r|net_expectancy_r)":[-0-9.e]+'; }
+
+echo "### Scenario 1 — bare gross-R, NO cost model (the zero-cost floor)"
+$AURA run --harness stage1-r | nr
+echo
+
+echo "### Scenario 2 — flat per-trade cost (ConstantCost, deduct AT CLOSE)"
+echo "# gross expectancy_r is fixed; net_expectancy_r drops monotonically with cost:"
+for c in 0.0001 0.001 0.01; do
+  echo -n "  --cost-per-trade $c -> "; $AURA run --harness stage1-r --cost-per-trade "$c" | nr | tr '\n' ' '; echo
+done
+$AURA run --harness stage1-r --cost-per-trade 0.001 --trace pertrade_cost >/dev/null
+echo
+
+echo "### Scenario 3 — per-HELD-CYCLE carry (CarryCost, ACCRUE over the hold) — the capstone"
+$AURA run --harness stage1-r --carry-per-cycle 0.001 --trace carry_cost | nr
+# The contrast lives in the net_r_equity gap during a hold (cycles ts4..ts7):
+#   per-trade gap = FLAT 0.367 (would-be-close offset, steps only at close)
+#   carry     gap = GROWING 0.367 -> 0.734 -> 1.101 -> 1.468 (continuous bleed)
+echo
+
+echo "### Scenario 4 — compose all three costs into ONE net-R curve"
+echo -n "  slip-vol-mult 0.5  alone -> "; $AURA run --harness stage1-r --slip-vol-mult 0.5    | nr | tr '\n' ' '; echo
+echo -n "  cost-per-trade 0.001 alone -> "; $AURA run --harness stage1-r --cost-per-trade 0.001 | nr | tr '\n' ' '; echo
+echo -n "  carry-per-cycle 0.001 alone -> "; $AURA run --harness stage1-r --carry-per-cycle 0.001 | nr | tr '\n' ' '; echo
+echo -n "  ALL THREE composed         -> "; $AURA run --harness stage1-r --cost-per-trade 0.001 --slip-vol-mult 0.5 --carry-per-cycle 0.001 --trace composed_cost | nr | tr '\n' ' '; echo
+# The composed net-R drag equals the EXACT sum of the three single-cost drags
+# (gross - composed == drag_pertrade + drag_slip + drag_carry), and composed net
+# is strictly below every single cost alone.
+echo
+
+echo "### Chart the bleed (self-contained HTML, series baked in):"
+echo "  $AURA chart carry_cost --tap net_r_equity > chart_carry_net_r_equity.html"
+echo
+
+echo "### Probes (robustness + foot-guns)"
+echo -n "  negative carry rate -> "; $AURA run --harness stage1-r --carry-per-cycle -0.001 >/dev/null 2>&1; echo "exit=$? (guard: refused)"
+echo -n "  cost flag on --harness sma (no R block) -> "; $AURA run --harness sma --cost-per-trade 0.001 | grep -oE '"total_pips":[-0-9.e]+'; echo "  ^ exit=0, cost flag SILENTLY IGNORED (no net block, no warning)"
diff --git a/fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/traces/carry_cost_net_r_equity.json b/fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/traces/carry_cost_net_r_equity.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..17eb683
--- /dev/null
+++ b/fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/traces/carry_cost_net_r_equity.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"tap":"net_r_equity","kinds":["F64"],"ts":[1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18],"columns":[[0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.3669467403225998,0.1100840220967938,0.7705881546774724,0.14677869612907357,-2.8621845745162613,-0.6008033210184802,-0.2996403432174498,-0.1992526839504214,-0.6509971506519545,-2.608556506358702,-0.9566118356071223,-0.590058977225036,-0.37623647650213865,-0.34569040497026826,-0.8038814779478711]]}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/traces/carry_cost_r_equity.json b/fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/traces/carry_cost_r_equity.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..0614671
--- /dev/null
+++ b/fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/traces/carry_cost_r_equity.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"tap":"r_equity","kinds":["F64"],"ts":[1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18],"columns":[[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.8439775027419933,1.8714283756452719,1.6145656574194727,0.8072828287097363,1.4848995287620497,2.0370316547306113,2.388388462165171,2.187613143631169,1.7358686769296081,2.4384283221619456,3.1104418958624453,3.629725111903756,3.96573189875404,3.8130015410948506]]}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/traces/composed_cost_net_r_equity.json b/fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/traces/composed_cost_net_r_equity.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..4ce1a1e
--- /dev/null
+++ b/fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/traces/composed_cost_net_r_equity.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"tap":"net_r_equity","kinds":["F64"],"ts":[1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18],"columns":[[0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.7338934806451995,-1.394397613225862,-1.1008402209677837,-1.4861342983064783,-5.467506430806677,-2.8571470122002847,-2.832050097383536,-2.819501639975162,-2.995180043692413,-5.316644664242096,-4.0158258464699355,-3.9852797749381006,-3.9089145961085077,-3.771457274215204,-3.8783685245766364]]}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/traces/composed_cost_r_equity.json b/fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/traces/composed_cost_r_equity.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..0614671
--- /dev/null
+++ b/fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/traces/composed_cost_r_equity.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"tap":"r_equity","kinds":["F64"],"ts":[1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18],"columns":[[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.8439775027419933,1.8714283756452719,1.6145656574194727,0.8072828287097363,1.4848995287620497,2.0370316547306113,2.388388462165171,2.187613143631169,1.7358686769296081,2.4384283221619456,3.1104418958624453,3.629725111903756,3.96573189875404,3.8130015410948506]]}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/traces/pertrade_cost_net_r_equity.json b/fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/traces/pertrade_cost_net_r_equity.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..6057619
--- /dev/null
+++ b/fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/traces/pertrade_cost_net_r_equity.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"tap":"net_r_equity","kinds":["F64"],"ts":[1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18],"columns":[[0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.3669467403225998,0.4770307624193936,1.504481635322672,1.2476189170968728,0.07338934806453679,0.8669836402719189,1.4191157662404805,1.7704725736750402,1.5696972551410382,0.866983640271946,1.5150517183534011,2.1870652920539007,2.7063485080952114,3.0423552949454953,2.889624937286306]]}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/traces/pertrade_cost_r_equity.json b/fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/traces/pertrade_cost_r_equity.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..0614671
--- /dev/null
+++ b/fieldtests/milestone-cost-model-graph/traces/pertrade_cost_r_equity.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"tap":"r_equity","kinds":["F64"],"ts":[1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18],"columns":[[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.8439775027419933,1.8714283756452719,1.6145656574194727,0.8072828287097363,1.4848995287620497,2.0370316547306113,2.388388462165171,2.187613143631169,1.7358686769296081,2.4384283221619456,3.1104418958624453,3.629725111903756,3.96573189875404,3.8130015410948506]]}
\ No newline at end of file