Commit Graph

7 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
Brummel a0d8aec3f7 feat(campaign): expand the campaign matrix over risk regimes (#210 T3)
The regime becomes the fourth structural coordinate of the campaign matrix, a
kept-separate axis (a peer of window, not aggregated-over like instrument):

- aura-campaign: CellSpec gains `regime` + `regime_ordinal`; the executor
  resolves the regime list (absent/empty risk -> one default cell, ordinal 0),
  runs a cell per (strategy, instrument, window, regime), and keys the nominee
  map by the 3-tuple including the regime ordinal — so generalize aggregates
  across instruments WITHIN a regime, never across regimes. Family names gain a
  `-r{regime_ordinal}` discriminator so two regimes' families cannot collide.
- aura-registry: `CampaignGeneralization` gains `regime_ordinal` (with
  `#[serde(default)]`, so pre-feature stored records still parse — pinned by a
  new backward-compat test).

The existing single-regime execute tests shift their family ids by `-r0`; a new
test pins that two regimes yield distinct `-r0`/`-r1` families. `CellSpec.regime`
is write-only in this slice — its sole reader is the deferred member runner
(the next slice) — a held quality nit, seam-prep as the plan prescribes. Full
workspace suite green.

refs #210
2026-07-06 14:22:59 +02:00
Brummel 2f9f3571ae feat(research): RiskRegime vocabulary + CampaignDoc.risk field + validation (#210 T1-2)
The first slice of the risk-regime structural axis (spec/plan abab1f1):

- aura-research: a serializable `RiskRegime` closed vocabulary (externally
  tagged, sole variant `Vol { length, k }` — a content-addressable mirror of
  the shipped two-variant StopRule, so a future Fixed regime is additive), and
  an optional top-level `CampaignDoc.risk: Vec<RiskRegime>` that absent-
  serializes (the `description` precedent) — content-id parity for every
  risk-less document.
- validate_campaign refuses a non-positive regime (length < 1 or k <= 0, NaN
  included) via a new `DocFault::BadRegime`; the CLI renders it as prose at the
  research_docs seam (register/validate paths).
- The three CLI-seam E2E tests pin that a well-formed risk section passes
  `campaign validate` and a bad one is refused with prose (exit 1, no Debug
  leak) — the field is reachable at the seam a data author drives, not only in
  library units.

Adding the field is compile-breaking at every `CampaignDoc { .. }` literal
(serde default does not cover Rust construction), so this slice also threads
`risk: vec![]` into the sites across aura-cli and aura-campaign — the
field-addition's compile-gate completion the plan should have scoped here. The
BadRegime prose reads `risk[i]: ...` (the implementer's terser wording over the
plan's illustrative string; the spec pinned no exact text). Full workspace
suite green.

refs #210
2026-07-06 14:02:33 +02:00
Brummel c37abb2a27 feat(research,campaign): optional selection group on the sweep stage (#210 T1-T2)
The std::sweep selection triple (metric/select/deflate) becomes ONE
optional group, Option<SweepSelection>, serde-flattened so the wire
form keeps the flat slots: every existing document parses to Some and
its canonical bytes — and content id — are unchanged (golden pin
byte-untouched). A half-populated group is refused by the schema-strict
parser (all-or-nothing); a bare {"block":"std::sweep"} is the
selection-free sweep.

Campaign side: preflight permits a selection-free sweep only as the
pipeline's terminal stage (new ExecFault::SelectionFreeSweepNotTerminal,
prose in aura-cli's exhaustive exec_fault_prose); the executor's
selection-free arm appends the family exactly as before but records no
StageSelection and produces no nominee (recording one would fabricate
intent — #210 fork decision 1).

Introspection follows: the sweep block's schema table marks the group
optional; CLI introspection pins updated. New tests: group-or-nothing
refusals, selection-free round-trip + distinct content id, terminal-only
preflight accept/refuse, selection-free execute realization.

refs #210
2026-07-04 17:43:53 +02:00
Brummel b8ef77b1c7 feat(research,registry,campaign): tap vocabulary + trace_name record contract (0109 tasks 1-2)
Task 1: the tap namespace is a closed vocabulary — tap_vocabulary()
(the wrap convention's four sink names; escalation = new entry or an
authored blueprint sink, never an open node-path namespace) with
DocFault::UnknownTap in validate_campaign (index-addressed, prose
enumerating the vocabulary via the single source), SlotKind::TapKinds
on the persist_taps slot, open-slot hint naming the taps. The 0107
deferral seam test split into its two 0109 pins (unknown tap refuses
at validate; a valid tap passes validate and hits the member-data
seam) — the deferral eprintln itself survives until task 3.

Task 2: CampaignRunRecord.trace_name lands serde-default sparse; the
claim contract holds across the seam — execute stamps the sentinel iff
persist_taps is non-empty, append_campaign_run composes
Some("{campaign8}-{run}") onto the stored line (safe prefix take at
the registry seam), execute mirrors the same derivation onto the
returned copy; None stays None; the hand-seeded byte-identity dump pin
survives (absent -> skipped).

Gates: workspace 1037/0, clippy -D warnings clean.

refs #201
2026-07-04 03:41:01 +02:00
Brummel a1cd7bc6f5 feat(campaign): monte_carlo stage arm + campaign-scope generalize phase (0108 tasks 3-4)
The mc arm bootstraps the stage's incoming R-evidence with one
semantics, input-shaped by position (#200 decision 1): after a
walk_forward it pools the wf family's per-window OOS trade_rs in roll
order into ONE r_bootstrap (PooledOos); after sweep/gates it
bootstraps each surviving member's fresh in-memory series
(PerSurvivor, ordinals into the population family; a zero-trade
member records the engine's defined all-zero degenerate). Seeded from
the campaign doc's seed (C1). The wf family is read by reference from
the cell's families vec — no clone. run_cell's Generalize arm is an
explicit no-op naming the campaign scope.

The generalize phase runs after the cell loop (#200 decision 2):
nominees (last wf window's OOS report, else the sweep winner; None on
gate truncation) grouped by (strategy, window) across instruments via
a BTreeMap (deterministic order); >= 2 winners feed the shipped
generalization(), fewer record the shortfall (generalization: None,
missing named) — divergent per-instrument winners are exposed via
their params, never averaged away.

Gates: campaign 40/0 (4 execute_mc + 3 execute_generalize new),
workspace build clean; the known-RED cli integration test flips in
task 5.

refs #200
2026-07-04 00:57:35 +02:00
Brummel b15ad07208 feat(campaign): execute — cell loop, sweep/gate stages, walk-forward stage (0107 tasks 6-7)
The execution core: cells iterate strategy x instrument x window in doc
order (sequential — C1 keeps parallelism across sims); the sweep stage
enumerates the axes odometer (BTreeMap order, last axis fastest) through
the engine sweep over a ListSpace with lowest-index-deterministic fault
capture; selection dispatches optimize / optimize_plateau /
optimize_deflated (deflation nulls seeded from the campaign doc's seed);
gates filter per-member via member_metric (metrics.r == None fails an R
predicate, conservative); an empty survivor set truncates the cell's
realization and the run continues (exit-0 semantics at the caller). The
walk-forward stage rolls the declared cell window in ms (WfMode ->
RollMode), IS-sweeps ONLY the survivor points per window, stamps
manifest.selection on OOS winner reports, and appends a WalkForward
family; realization = CampaignRunRecord over untouched family records.

The loop's task-7 BLOCKED was review-exhaustion on the task-6 stub
wording the plan itself prescribed (task 7 deletes that stub); a fresh
post-loop quality review on the final diff returned one Minor — the
campaign_id prefix slice could panic on a malformed id — fixed as a
typed PipelineShape refusal + test (execute_refuses_malformed_campaign_id).
Known and accepted: a cross-cell member fault leaves earlier cells'
families as unreferenced records in the append-only store; nested
window/member parallelism can oversubscribe cores on large campaigns.

Gates: aura-campaign 29/0, workspace 961+/0, clippy -D warnings clean.

refs #198
2026-07-03 20:53:18 +02:00
Brummel 3a4f1c4597 feat(campaign): aura-campaign crate — types, member_metric, preflight (0107 tasks 4-5)
New leaf library crate: the campaign-execution semantics home (#198
home decision — reusable beyond the CLI; NOT C21's project-side
World). CellSpec + the MemberRunner seam (the only thing a consumer
implements), MemberFault/ExecFault (Display-free, prose at the binary
seam), member_metric over the 14 per-member scalars (third roster
site, refs #190 — drift fails safe as a preflight refusal), and
preflight: v1 pipeline shape std::sweep [std::gate]* [std::walk_forward],
rankable-metric and gate-metric rosters, plateau-in-wf and
deflate+plateau refusals, i64-fit guard on wf lengths — all before any
member runs.

Post-loop: the held quality finding (untested i64-fit arm) verified
real and closed by hand — preflight_refuses_wf_length_exceeding_i64.

Gates: aura-campaign 14/0, clippy -D warnings clean.

refs #198
2026-07-03 19:59:21 +02:00