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Aura/crates/aura-engine/tests/risk_executor.rs
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Brummel b4e84335c4 feat(stage1-r): Sizer + RiskExecutor + R-metric enrichment (iter 2)
Iteration 2 of cycle 0065 (Stage-1 R signal quality) — the node + metric layer.
Builds on iter-1's PositionManagement dense R-record + core summarize_r.

What ships:

- PositionManagement gains a 4th `size` input (slot 3 -> col 10), fed by the
  Sizer. R is computed size-INVARIANTLY (pure stop-distance ratio), so size
  never touches realized_r — pinned by a RED test (scaling size leaves every
  realized_r unchanged) at the node and again end-to-end through the executor.

- Sizer (aura-std): `size = risk_budget / stop_distance` — flat-1R (risk_budget
  1.0 => one risk unit per trade, size inversely proportional to the stop, not a
  constant). Reads bias (firing/presence) + stop_distance; the Stage-2
  fixed-fractional sizer slots in unchanged (swap risk_budget for
  risk_fraction*equity, same node shape).

- summarize_r enrichment: SQN (sqrt(n)*mean_R/sample-stdev_R; n<2 or zero-variance
  -> 0), conviction_terciles_r (E[R] by |bias_at_entry| tercile), net_expectancy_r
  (gross minus one round-trip cost per trade, charged in R via the latched_dist
  recovered from the entry_price/stop_price columns). summarize_r gains a
  `round_trip_cost` param (price units). The net-of-cost recovery is tested
  through the real producer->consumer seam, not just hand-built rows.

- RunMetrics.r: Option<RMetrics> with #[serde(default, skip_serializing_if =
  "Option::is_none")] — legacy runs.jsonl (no `r` key) deserialise to None and a
  pip-only run's on-disk shape stays byte-unchanged (C14/C18 back-compat). Every
  RunMetrics literal threaded (report.rs, aura-registry, aura-engine/mc).

- RiskExecutor (aura-engine integration-test fixture, sibling of
  vol_stop_composite): FixedStop -> Sizer -> PositionManagement behind open
  bias+price input roles, price fanned to both the stop and PM, the Sizer's size
  into PM. Bias is produced in-graph from the single price source (a second bias
  *source* would k-way-merge into separate cycles and mark stale prices). The
  Veto is a DOCUMENTED SEAM, not a runtime node (a pass-through identity is what
  C19/C23 DCE deletes). Tests: the composite bootstraps + runs + folds to the
  documented hand value; R invariant under risk_budget while the size column
  scales; a live-folded RMetrics survives the RunMetrics serde round-trip.

The dense-record size column (10) is brought under the cross-crate layout guard
(stage1_r_e2e r_col_indices_match_producer_field_layout) so the executor
fixture's size-invariance read is drift-protected like the others.

Scope: the CLI/recording surface (#129) is sub-split into a separate iteration 3
and is NOT in this commit.

Verified: cargo build --workspace clean; cargo test --workspace 500 passed,
0 failed; cargo clippy --workspace --all-targets -D warnings clean.

refs #117 #127 #128 #129
2026-06-24 02:15:51 +02:00

171 lines
8.8 KiB
Rust

//! The `RiskExecutor` composite (Stage-1, #128): a per-symbol risk-based executor over a
//! bias stream — `stop-rule -> Sizer -> position-management`, exposing the dense R-record.
//! Proves the composite bootstraps, runs end-to-end, and folds to the SAME R-outcomes as
//! the hand-wired iter-1 chain, and that R is invariant under the Sizer's `risk_budget`
//! (Stage-1 feed-forward). The Veto is a DOCUMENTED SEAM, not a runtime node (a
//! pass-through identity is exactly what C19/C23 DCE deletes), so it appears nowhere here.
use aura_core::{
Cell, Ctx, FieldSpec, Firing, Node, NodeSchema, PortSpec, PrimitiveBuilder, Scalar,
ScalarKind, Timestamp,
};
use aura_engine::{summarize_r, Composite, GraphBuilder, RunMetrics, VecSource};
use aura_std::{FixedStop, PositionManagement, Recorder, Sizer, PM_FIELD_NAMES, PM_RECORD_KINDS};
use std::sync::mpsc::channel;
// The dense-record columns this fixture reads, named in lockstep with the sibling
// `stage1_r_e2e.rs` (which names `REALIZED_R = 1` the same way) so the cross-crate
// `PM_FIELD_NAMES` layout is never referenced by a bare literal.
const REALIZED_R: usize = 1;
const SIZE: usize = 10;
/// The per-symbol RiskExecutor: open input roles `bias` + `price`, internal
/// `FixedStop(stop_distance) -> Sizer(risk_budget) -> PositionManagement`, exposing every
/// field of PM's dense R-record. Price fans to BOTH the stop-rule and PM; bias fans to the
/// Sizer and PM; the Sizer's `size` feeds PM's size slot. (Stage-1 ships `FixedStop` here;
/// the volatility stop is a drop-in composite, see `vol_stop_composite.rs`.)
fn risk_executor(stop_distance: f64, risk_budget: f64) -> Composite {
let mut g = GraphBuilder::new("risk_executor");
let bias = g.input_role("bias");
let price = g.input_role("price");
let stop = g.add(FixedStop::builder().bind("distance", Scalar::f64(stop_distance)));
let sizer = g.add(Sizer::builder().bind("risk_budget", Scalar::f64(risk_budget)));
let pm = g.add(PositionManagement::builder());
g.feed(price, [stop.input("price"), pm.input("price")]); // price fans to stop + PM
g.feed(bias, [sizer.input("bias"), pm.input("bias")]); // bias fans to sizer + PM
g.connect(stop.output("stop_distance"), sizer.input("stop_distance"));
g.connect(stop.output("stop_distance"), pm.input("stop_distance"));
g.connect(sizer.output("size"), pm.input("size")); // the flat-1R size into PM
for field in PM_FIELD_NAMES {
g.expose(pm.output(field), field);
}
g.build().expect("risk_executor wires")
}
/// An always-long strategy stand-in: emits a constant `+1` bias once price is present. The
/// strategy is upstream of the RiskExecutor; this is the minimal in-graph producer so the
/// whole chain runs off the single price source (a second bias *source* would k-way-merge
/// into separate cycles and mark stale prices — see harness.rs C4 tie-breaking).
struct ConstLongBias {
out: [Cell; 1],
}
impl ConstLongBias {
fn builder() -> PrimitiveBuilder {
PrimitiveBuilder::new(
"ConstLongBias",
NodeSchema {
inputs: vec![PortSpec { kind: ScalarKind::F64, firing: Firing::Any, name: "price".into() }],
output: vec![FieldSpec { name: "bias".into(), kind: ScalarKind::F64 }],
params: vec![],
},
|_| Box::new(ConstLongBias { out: [Cell::from_f64(0.0)] }),
)
}
}
impl Node for ConstLongBias {
fn lookbacks(&self) -> Vec<usize> {
vec![1]
}
fn eval(&mut self, ctx: Ctx<'_>) -> Option<&[Cell]> {
if ctx.f64_in(0).is_empty() {
return None;
}
self.out[0] = Cell::from_f64(1.0);
Some(&self.out)
}
fn label(&self) -> String {
"ConstLongBias".into()
}
}
/// Bootstrap a harness: one price source -> ConstLongBias (the strategy) + RiskExecutor;
/// the RiskExecutor's dense R-record into a Recorder. Returns the drained ledger.
fn run_executor(prices: &[f64], stop_distance: f64, risk_budget: f64) -> Vec<(Timestamp, Vec<Scalar>)> {
let (tx, rx) = channel();
let mut g = GraphBuilder::new("risk_harness");
let price = g.source_role("price", ScalarKind::F64);
let strat = g.add(ConstLongBias::builder());
let exec = g.add(risk_executor(stop_distance, risk_budget));
let rec = g.add(Recorder::builder(PM_RECORD_KINDS.to_vec(), Firing::Any, tx));
g.feed(price, [strat.input("price"), exec.input("price")]);
g.connect(strat.output("bias"), exec.input("bias"));
for (i, field) in PM_FIELD_NAMES.iter().enumerate() {
// `input` takes a `&'static str` (names resolve at the authoring boundary, C23);
// leak the per-column port name so the runtime-built `col[i]` satisfies that bound.
let col: &'static str = format!("col[{i}]").leak();
g.connect(exec.output(field), rec.input(col));
}
let mut h = g
.build()
.expect("risk_harness wires")
.bootstrap_with_params(vec![])
.expect("bootstraps");
let stream: Vec<(Timestamp, Scalar)> = prices
.iter()
.enumerate()
.map(|(i, &p)| (Timestamp(i as i64), Scalar::f64(p)))
.collect();
h.run(vec![Box::new(VecSource::new(stream))]);
rx.try_iter().collect()
}
/// Property: the composite bootstraps, runs, and folds to the documented hand value. A
/// constant long over a monotonically rising price never stops or flips, so the position
/// is open at window end: entry @100 latched on FixedStop(10), last mark @105 -> window-end
/// R = (105-100)/10 = +0.5, the only trade -> expectancy 0.5 (the bootstrapped-composite
/// twin of the iter-1 hand-wired `open_at_window_end_is_folded_into_expectancy_not_dropped`).
#[test]
fn risk_executor_bootstraps_and_folds_to_expected_rmetric() {
let ledger = run_executor(&[100.0, 102.0, 105.0], 10.0, 1.0);
let m = summarize_r(&ledger, 0.0);
assert_eq!(m.n_open_at_end, 1, "the open position must be counted");
assert_eq!(m.n_trades, 1);
assert!((m.expectancy_r - 0.5).abs() < 1e-9, "window-end R = (105-100)/10; got {}", m.expectancy_r);
}
/// Property: R is invariant under the Sizer's `risk_budget` (Stage-1 feed-forward). The
/// same price path at two budgets yields a bit-identical realised-R ledger, while the
/// `size` column scales with the budget — proving size flows through the Sizer into PM yet
/// never touches R.
#[test]
fn risk_executor_r_invariant_under_risk_budget() {
let path = [100.0, 104.0, 108.0, 110.0, 102.0, 96.0, 94.0];
let a = run_executor(&path, 5.0, 1.0);
let b = run_executor(&path, 5.0, 8.0);
assert_eq!(a.len(), b.len());
assert!(!a.is_empty());
// index realized_r and size by the producer's dense-record layout (named consts above).
let realized =
|rows: &[(Timestamp, Vec<Scalar>)]| rows.iter().map(|(_, r)| r[REALIZED_R].as_f64()).collect::<Vec<_>>();
let size =
|rows: &[(Timestamp, Vec<Scalar>)]| rows.iter().map(|(_, r)| r[SIZE].as_f64()).collect::<Vec<_>>();
assert_eq!(realized(&a), realized(&b), "realized_r must be invariant under risk_budget");
// size scaled 8x: at least one cycle has a nonzero size that is exactly 8x a's (same
// stop distance per cycle, budget 1 -> 8).
let (sa, sb) = (size(&a), size(&b));
assert!(
sa.iter().zip(&sb).any(|(x, y)| *x > 0.0 && (*y - 8.0 * *x).abs() < 1e-9),
"risk_budget must scale size 8x: a={sa:?} b={sb:?}"
);
}
/// Property: **a real folded `RMetrics` survives the `RunMetrics.r` serde round-trip
/// byte-for-byte (the Stage-1 on-disk back-compat contract), driven from an actual run —
/// not a hand-built literal.** A bootstrapped RiskExecutor run is folded by `summarize_r`
/// and the result is attached as `RunMetrics.r = Some(..)`; serializing then
/// deserializing must reproduce an equal value, and the `r` key must be present. The
/// `report.rs` unit test asserts this on a hand-written `RMetrics`; here the value is
/// whatever the live fold produced, so a future `RMetrics` field that the fold sets but
/// serde forgets to thread would round-trip-diverge here (the literal test cannot see it).
/// The sibling pip-only-`None` path (omitted from JSON) is the inverse, covered in report.rs.
#[test]
fn folded_rmetrics_survives_runmetrics_serde_round_trip() {
let ledger = run_executor(&[100.0, 104.0, 108.0, 110.0, 102.0, 96.0, 94.0], 5.0, 1.0);
let folded = summarize_r(&ledger, 0.0);
assert!(folded.n_trades >= 1, "the run must produce at least one trade to fold");
let m = RunMetrics { total_pips: 0.0, max_drawdown: 0.0, exposure_sign_flips: 0, r: Some(folded) };
let json = serde_json::to_string(&m).expect("serialize a run's RunMetrics with an r block");
assert!(json.contains("\"r\":{"), "the folded r block must be present in the JSON: {json}");
let back: RunMetrics = serde_json::from_str(&json).expect("deserialize round-trips");
assert_eq!(back, m, "a live-folded RMetrics must round-trip byte-for-byte");
}