research: Arc 3 — six data-only signal families, designed engine-blind

Six confirm/refute families (vol-normalized momentum, mean-reversion z-fade, vol-regime-gated breakout, H4 EMA trend, H4 breakout port, channel-position fade) authored by engine-blind agents from a distilled reference card plus the CLI validation loop, adversarially design-reviewed, then run over 4 instruments x 3 stop regimes. Five honest nulls; one candidate (vol-normalized momentum on US500, WF-OOS P<=0.05 in all three regimes) forwarded to the Arc 4 breadth test.
2026-07-13 18:07:26 +02:00
parent 36bbe76114
commit de92b4283d
13 changed files with 598 additions and 0 deletions
@@ -0,0 +1,84 @@
+{
+  "format_version": 1,
+  "kind": "campaign",
+  "name": "arc3-trend-h4-cross",
+  "description": "Arc 3 family trend-h4-cross: H4 trend slope expressed in realized-volatility units carries directional information: the sign and vol-normalized magnitude of EMA(fast)-EMA(slow) on H4 (240-min) bars predicts forward returns. The bias is bias = clamp( (ema_fast - ema_slow) / realized_vol / scale, -1, +1 ), a unit-free conviction score. CONFIRM if pooled walk-forward OOS expectancy_r is positive with low prob_le_zero, net-of-cos",
+  "seed": 0,
+  "data": {
+    "instruments": [
+      "GER40",
+      "US500",
+      "EURUSD",
+      "XAUUSD"
+    ],
+    "windows": [
+      {
+        "from_ms": 1514764800000,
+        "to_ms": 1782863999999
+      }
+    ]
+  },
+  "risk": [
+    {
+      "vol": {
+        "length": 3,
+        "k": 2.0
+      }
+    },
+    {
+      "vol": {
+        "length": 60,
+        "k": 6.0
+      }
+    },
+    {
+      "vol": {
+        "length": 60,
+        "k": 12.0
+      }
+    }
+  ],
+  "cost": [
+    {
+      "vol_slippage": {
+        "slip_vol_mult": 0.1
+      }
+    }
+  ],
+  "strategies": [
+    {
+      "ref": {
+        "content_id": "f5d723c4d7dbf5cb5e8e6d775ef69f8831cce1e7272dd5441e9d5d2b23f9af7a"
+      },
+      "axes": {
+        "ema_fast.length": {
+          "kind": "I64",
+          "values": [
+            6,
+            12,
+            24
+          ]
+        },
+        "ema_slow.length": {
+          "kind": "I64",
+          "values": [
+            48,
+            96,
+            192
+          ]
+        }
+      }
+    }
+  ],
+  "process": {
+    "ref": {
+      "content_id": "41863fcae9300b334056c6f2a899e8c2672ecb29387d294e9a6e58f159ef51b4"
+    }
+  },
+  "presentation": {
+    "persist_taps": [],
+    "emit": [
+      "selection_report"
+    ]
+  }
+}