2c43296c2c
Iteration 1 of the Stage-1 "R-based signal quality" cycle (spec 0065): a strategy's signal quality, measured in R on its unsized bias stream, feed-forward. New discrete-trade machinery, NOT a SimBroker extension. What lands: - exposure -> bias (refs #126): the Exposure node/type/file/output-field renamed to Bias (computation unchanged: clamp(signal/scale,-1,+1); the SEMANTICS change — the output is the unsized strategy bias, sizing leaves the strategy). Scoped to the semantic core; behaviour-preserving cosmetics are deferred (see below). - stop-rule nodes (refs #119): VolStop = k*EMA(|price - prev_price|) (one fused node; the volatility that defines 1R, close-to-close — true-range ATR deferred, needs OHLC) + FixedStop (constant, the test fixture / fixed-vs-vol structural-axis sibling). - PositionManagement (refs #127): the stateful heart. Latches the entry-cycle stop distance as the FROZEN R-denominator (never re-read), marks/exits no-look-ahead like SimBroker (a position earns from the next cycle; an exit realises against the cycle's close), and emits ONE dense per-cycle R-record (C8). Stop-outs are NOT capped at -1R (a gap through the stop realises R < -1 — the honest loss tail); R is computed size-invariantly (size = (exit-entry)*dir / latched_dist cancels). The trade ledger is the rows where closed_this_cycle; the R-equity is cum_realized + unrealized; a position open at window end is the last row (open=true) — explicit, never silent MtM. - summarize_r + RMetrics (refs #129): the post-run fold (NOT an in-graph node — recorders drain post-run). E[R], win-rate, profit-factor, avg win/loss R, by-trade max R-drawdown, n_open_at_end (window-end force-close). SQN / conviction terciles / net-of-cost / RunMetrics.r are iteration 2. Design adversarially hardened before implementation (12-juror refute panel; decisions on #117). Ratified implementer deviations from the plan snippet, verified by hand: - col-4 `direction` tracks the OPEN position at cycle end (window-end synthesis; names the reopened leg on a reversal), falling back to the closed trade's dir only when flat. summarize_r does not read col 4; the R-metrics are unaffected. - .named("exposure") kept on the 4 previously-unnamed Bias nodes so the auto-derived param-path stays exposure.scale (no manifest/dir-name drift) — the unnamed nodes would otherwise flip to bias.scale. - intra-doc links [`Exposure`] -> [`Bias`] in sim_broker/latch + the sample-model test pin (cosmetic, behaviour-neutral; broken intra-doc links fail cargo doc). - the E2E drives a full bootstrapped Harness (stronger than the plan's direct-node drive — exercises the real cross-crate producer->consumer seam). Deferred (behaviour-preserving, separate cosmetic pass — NOT this iteration): RunMetrics.exposure_sign_flips / Metric::ExposureSignFlips, SimBroker/LongOnly "exposure" input ports, the "exposure" tap/trace names, and the .named("exposure") instance labels. Iteration 2: the Sizer seam, the RiskExecutor composite (+ the Veto documented-seam), summarize_r enrichment, RunMetrics.r, and the CLI/recording surface. Verification (orchestrator-run, not agent-claimed): - cargo build --workspace: clean. - cargo test --workspace: all green, 0 failed (incl. the new bias/stop_rule/ position_management unit tests, the summarize_r arithmetic tests, and the stage1_r_e2e capstone + layout guard). - cargo clippy --workspace --all-targets -- -D warnings: clean (exit 0). - Keystone RED tests pass: no_lookahead_bias_exit_realises_the_held_move, stop_out_is_not_capped_at_minus_one_r, no_gap_stop_is_exactly_minus_one_r, reversal_closes_one_leg_and_reopens, open_at_window_end_is_carried_on_the_last_row. refs #117 #119 #126 #127 #129
276 lines
11 KiB
Rust
276 lines
11 KiB
Rust
//! `Sma` — simple moving average over the last `length` values of one f64 input.
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//!
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//! Computed as an **O(1) incremental window sum**, not a per-tick re-sum: the node
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//! owns a `length`-slot ring of the window and keeps a running `sum`, adding the
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//! new sample and subtracting the evicted one each cycle (the ta-lib running-sum
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//! shape). The running sum carries a **Kahan/Neumaier compensation** term so it
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//! does not drift over millions of add/remove ops — the fix pandas' rolling mean
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//! adopted after real float-drift bug reports; ta-lib omits it and drifts.
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//!
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//! `Ema` needs no equivalent (`ema.rs`): its recurrence is *contractive*
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//! (`ema += alpha*(x - ema)` rescales old state by `1-alpha < 1` each tick), so a
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//! past rounding error decays geometrically instead of accumulating. The SMA
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//! running sum is *accumulative* — error has nowhere to go — which is exactly why
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//! it, and not the EMA, needs compensation.
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//!
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//! Because the window lives in node state, `eval` reads only the newest sample and
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//! `lookbacks()` is `1` (the input column is depth-1), exactly like `Ema`. O(1)
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//! time, O(length) state, allocation-free on the hot path (the ring and output
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//! buffer are sized once at construction).
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use aura_core::{
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Cell, Ctx, FieldSpec, Firing, Node, NodeSchema, ParamSpec, PortSpec, PrimitiveBuilder,
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ScalarKind,
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};
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/// Simple moving average over the last `length` values of one f64 input,
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/// maintained as an O(1) Kahan-compensated running sum over a node-owned ring.
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pub struct Sma {
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length: usize,
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// The window, node-owned (so the input column is depth-1): `ring[pos]` is the
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// oldest value, the one the next push evicts. Sized once at construction (C7).
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ring: Box<[f64]>,
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pos: usize,
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// Samples seen so far — the warm-up gate (silent until `length`, like `Ema`).
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count: usize,
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// Running sum of the values currently in `ring`, plus its Kahan compensation
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// term (the low-order bits each add/remove dropped, folded into the next op).
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sum: f64,
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comp: f64,
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out: [Cell; 1],
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}
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impl Sma {
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/// Build an SMA of window `length` (must be >= 1).
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pub fn new(length: usize) -> Self {
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assert!(length >= 1, "SMA length must be >= 1");
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Self {
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length,
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ring: vec![0.0; length].into_boxed_slice(),
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pos: 0,
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count: 0,
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sum: 0.0,
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comp: 0.0,
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out: [Cell::from_f64(0.0)],
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}
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}
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/// The param-generic recipe for a blueprint primitive: declares `length` and builds
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/// through `Sma::new` (the single sizing/validation gate; the slice is
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/// kind-checked before `build` runs, so the typed read is total).
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pub fn builder() -> PrimitiveBuilder {
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PrimitiveBuilder::new(
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"SMA",
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NodeSchema {
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inputs: vec![PortSpec { kind: ScalarKind::F64, firing: Firing::Any, name: "series".into() }],
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output: vec![FieldSpec { name: "value".into(), kind: ScalarKind::F64 }],
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params: vec![ParamSpec { name: "length".into(), kind: ScalarKind::I64 }],
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},
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|p| Box::new(Sma::new(p[0].i64() as usize)),
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)
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}
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}
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/// Kahan/Neumaier compensated accumulation: fold `v` into `*sum`, carrying the
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/// low-order bits lost on this step in `*comp` so a long sequence of adds (and
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/// removes, which are adds of a negative) does not drift. The whole reason the SMA
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/// running sum stays accurate over millions of ticks; `Ema`'s contractive
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/// recurrence needs no such term (see the module docs).
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fn kahan(sum: &mut f64, comp: &mut f64, v: f64) {
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let y = v - *comp;
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let t = *sum + y;
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*comp = (t - *sum) - y;
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*sum = t;
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}
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impl Node for Sma {
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// The window lives in node state, so only the newest sample is read each cycle
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// — `length` sizes the ring, not the input column (recursive, like `Ema`).
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fn lookbacks(&self) -> Vec<usize> {
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vec![1]
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}
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fn eval(&mut self, ctx: Ctx<'_>) -> Option<&[Cell]> {
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let w = ctx.f64_in(0);
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if w.is_empty() {
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return None; // no sample yet
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}
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let x = w[0]; // index 0 = newest (financial indexing)
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// Add the newest into the running sum; once the window is full, remove the
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// value this push evicts (the ring slot about to be overwritten). Both go
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// through Kahan so the running sum tracks the true window sum.
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kahan(&mut self.sum, &mut self.comp, x);
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if self.count >= self.length {
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let evicted = self.ring[self.pos];
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kahan(&mut self.sum, &mut self.comp, -evicted);
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}
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self.ring[self.pos] = x;
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self.pos = (self.pos + 1) % self.length;
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if self.count < self.length {
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self.count += 1;
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}
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if self.count < self.length {
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return None; // not yet warmed up
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}
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self.out[0] = Cell::from_f64(self.sum / self.length as f64);
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Some(&self.out)
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}
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fn label(&self) -> String {
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format!("SMA({})", self.length)
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}
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}
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#[cfg(test)]
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mod tests {
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use super::*;
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use aura_core::{AnyColumn, Scalar, Timestamp};
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#[test]
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fn sma_warms_up_then_tracks_the_window_mean() {
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let sma_for_depth = Sma::new(3);
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// size the input column from the node's lookback, as bootstrap will at wiring
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let mut inputs =
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vec![AnyColumn::with_capacity(ScalarKind::F64, sma_for_depth.lookbacks()[0])];
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let mut sma = sma_for_depth;
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let feed = [1.0_f64, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0];
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// means of [1,2,3], [2,3,4], [3,4,5] once warmed up
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let expect = [None, None, Some(2.0), Some(3.0), Some(4.0)];
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for (v, want) in feed.iter().zip(expect) {
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inputs[0].push(Scalar::f64(*v)).unwrap();
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let got = sma.eval(Ctx::new(&inputs, Timestamp(0)));
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match want {
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None => assert_eq!(got, None),
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Some(m) => assert_eq!(got, Some([Cell::from_f64(m)].as_slice())),
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}
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}
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}
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#[test]
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fn sma_length_one_is_identity() {
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let mut sma = Sma::new(1);
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let mut inputs = vec![AnyColumn::with_capacity(ScalarKind::F64, 1)];
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inputs[0].push(Scalar::f64(7.0)).unwrap();
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assert_eq!(sma.eval(Ctx::new(&inputs, Timestamp(0))), Some([Cell::from_f64(7.0)].as_slice()));
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inputs[0].push(Scalar::f64(9.0)).unwrap();
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assert_eq!(sma.eval(Ctx::new(&inputs, Timestamp(0))), Some([Cell::from_f64(9.0)].as_slice()));
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}
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#[test]
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fn lookback_is_one_window_lives_in_node_state() {
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// the incremental SMA owns its window ring, so it reads only the newest
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// sample each cycle — input column depth drops from `length` to 1 (like Ema).
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assert_eq!(Sma::new(20).lookbacks(), vec![1]);
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assert_eq!(Sma::new(1).lookbacks(), vec![1]);
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}
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#[test]
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fn incremental_matches_full_resum_within_tolerance() {
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// the running Kahan sum must track the true window mean across a long, noisy
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// f64 series. Drive the node and a reference full re-sum side by side; they
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// agree to a tight tolerance (Kahan keeps drift near machine epsilon — a
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// bare running sum would slowly diverge, which is the bug pandas fixed).
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let length = 50;
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let mut sma = Sma::new(length);
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let mut inputs = vec![AnyColumn::with_capacity(ScalarKind::F64, 1)];
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// a deterministic non-integer series mixing magnitudes, so cancellation bites
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let series: Vec<f64> =
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(0..5_000).map(|i| 1.1234 + (i as f64) * 1e-3 + ((i % 7) as f64) * 0.37).collect();
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let mut hist: Vec<f64> = Vec::new();
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for &x in &series {
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inputs[0].push(Scalar::f64(x)).unwrap();
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let got = sma.eval(Ctx::new(&inputs, Timestamp(0))).map(|r| r[0].f64());
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hist.push(x);
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if hist.len() >= length {
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let want: f64 = hist[hist.len() - length..].iter().sum::<f64>() / length as f64;
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let g = got.expect("warmed up after `length` samples");
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assert!((g - want).abs() < 1e-9, "incremental {g} vs re-sum {want}");
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} else {
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assert_eq!(got, None, "silent until warmed up");
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}
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}
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}
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#[test]
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fn labels_carry_identifying_params() {
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use crate::{Add, Bias, LinComb, Recorder, SimBroker, Sub};
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use aura_core::{Firing, ScalarKind};
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// the load-bearing payoff: two SMAs disambiguate by window
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assert_eq!(Sma::new(2).label(), "SMA(2)");
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assert_eq!(Sma::new(4).label(), "SMA(4)");
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// param-carrying single nodes
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assert_eq!(Bias::new(0.5).label(), "Bias(0.5)");
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assert_eq!(SimBroker::new(0.0001).label(), "SimBroker(0.0001)");
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// bare-kind nodes (identity is not a mis-wiring axis here)
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assert_eq!(Sub::new().label(), "Sub");
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assert_eq!(Add::new().label(), "Add");
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assert_eq!(LinComb::new(vec![1.0, -1.0]).label(), "LinComb");
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let (tx, _rx) = std::sync::mpsc::channel();
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assert_eq!(Recorder::new(&[ScalarKind::F64], Firing::Any, tx).label(), "Recorder");
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}
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#[test]
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fn nodes_declare_expected_params() {
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use crate::{Add, Bias, LinComb, Recorder, SimBroker, Sub};
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use aura_core::{Firing, ParamSpec, ScalarKind};
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// single scalar knobs (declared on the param-generic builder, pre-build)
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assert_eq!(
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Sma::builder().schema().params,
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vec![ParamSpec { name: "length".into(), kind: ScalarKind::I64 }],
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);
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assert_eq!(
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Bias::builder().schema().params,
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vec![ParamSpec { name: "scale".into(), kind: ScalarKind::F64 }],
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);
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// vector knob expands flat to N indexed F64 entries
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let lc = LinComb::builder(2).schema().params.clone();
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assert_eq!(lc.len(), 2);
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assert_eq!(lc[0].name, "weights[0]");
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assert_eq!(lc[1].name, "weights[1]");
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assert!(lc.iter().all(|p| p.kind == ScalarKind::F64));
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// param-less nodes declare empty
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assert!(Sub::builder().schema().params.is_empty());
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assert!(Add::builder().schema().params.is_empty());
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assert!(SimBroker::builder(0.0001).schema().params.is_empty());
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let (tx, _rx) = std::sync::mpsc::channel();
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assert!(
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Recorder::builder(vec![ScalarKind::F64], Firing::Any, tx)
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.schema()
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.params
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.is_empty()
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);
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}
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#[test]
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fn input_slot_is_named_series() {
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assert_eq!(Sma::builder().schema().inputs[0].name, "series");
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}
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#[test]
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fn bind_removes_slot_from_param_space() {
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// a bound param-bearing node reports an empty param surface — parity with the
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// SimBroker precedent (nodes_declare_expected_params, this file)
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let sma2 = Sma::builder().named("bias").bind("length", Scalar::i64(2));
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assert!(sma2.schema().params.is_empty());
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// contrast: the length-generic SMA keeps `length` open
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assert_eq!(Sma::builder().named("bias").params().len(), 1);
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}
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#[test]
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fn bound_node_builds_with_injected_value() {
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// built with an empty open slice, the bound builder yields SMA(2)
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let node = Sma::builder().bind("length", Scalar::i64(2)).build(&[]);
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assert_eq!(node.label(), "SMA(2)");
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}
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}
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