Brummel 8b2defa653 fix(cli): reject a silent-vacuous blueprint Monte-Carlo instead of returning it
`aura mc <bp.json>` builds a per-seed synthetic price walk with a fixed 60-bar
SyntheticSpec. A deeper-lookback loaded blueprint warms poorly over that walk, so
every seed can collapse to a bit-identical draw and the family was returned as an
Ok result — a single point masquerading as a distribution, a wrong result with no
error. Guard it: with >= 2 seeds, if every draw's metrics equal the first draw's,
refuse with a named error (C10 refuse-don't-guess), rather than auto-sizing the
walk (which would have to guess a warm-up depth the harness does not surface).

Compares `report.metrics`, not the whole RunReport — the manifest seed differs per
draw by construction, so a whole-report compare could never detect the collapse.

RED-first; the existing `blueprint_mc_family_seeds_differ` pins that a legitimate
(differing-draw) MC is not falsely rejected. Interim guard only — the real-data
moving-block-bootstrap headline stays gated on the DataServer seam.

refs #172
2026-07-02 09:41:54 +02:00
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