Commit Graph

88 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
Brummel 3fe4684190 feat(0081): cost-model graph cycle 1 — ConstantCost node + net-R seam
Lands the first cycle of the "Cost-model graph (in R)" milestone: cost is
now a composable in-graph node, not a post-run scalar (C10).

- ConstantCost (aura-std): a flat round-trip cost per trade, emitted in R
  as a 3-field record {cost_in_r, cum_cost_in_r, open_cost_in_r} isomorphic
  to PositionManagement's R-triple. R-pure: cost_in_r = cost_per_trade /
  |entry-stop|; notional cancels, no equity held.
- summarize_r folds the cost stream into net_expectancy_r, replacing its
  scalar round_trip_cost (one home for cost, no double-count). Positional
  co-temporal join; an empty stream is the gross-R baseline.
- net_r_equity tap (stage1_r_graph): LinComb(4) over [cum_realized_r,
  unrealized_r, -cum_cost_in_r, -open_cost_in_r] -> Recorder, a sibling of
  r_equity; --cost-per-trade on the run path wires the node + tap + fold.
- A no-cost run is byte-identical: no net_r_equity tap, net == gross, the
  C18 golden unchanged.

Tests: exact-subsumption (the node-stream net == mean(r_i - cost_i) over
ALL trades incl. the window-end open one), the in-graph net_r_equity tap +
net < gross E2E, the no-cost golden held. Full suite green; clippy clean.

Implement-time decisions ratified (recorded on #148): the cost stream is
recorded 3-wide (the node's full output; summarize_r reads col 0/2, col 1
feeds the in-graph net curve) — resolving a 2-wide/3-wide inconsistency in
the plan's Step 3; Trade drops its `latched` field (cost now arrives in R),
so r_col ENTRY_PRICE/STOP_PRICE become #[allow(dead_code)] layout contract.

Scoped to the run path (non-reduce); sweep/walkforward/mc pass None — cost
on the reduce-mode sweep path and OOS-pooling cost are a deferred follow-up.

Known pre-existing concern (not this cycle): aura-std lib.rs module doc
still names "realistic broker profiles", retired by the C10 rework.

refs #148
2026-06-28 14:41:45 +02:00
Brummel 3e8fd73f68 tidy: clear the milestone fieldtest findings (refusal reasons, --help, ledger + glossary)
Resolves the four non-bug findings from the inferential-validation milestone
fieldtest (the bug — the broken-pipe panic — is fixed in 1088320):
- [friction] generalize refusals now carry a reason instead of a bare usage dump:
  <2 instruments, a multi-value candidate flag, a missing knob, a duplicate
  symbol, and a non-stage1-r strategy each get a one-line why (mirroring the
  R-only metric refusal). Two parser tests strengthened to pin the message.
- [friction] --select <argmax|plateau:mean|plateau:worst> added to the
  walkforward branch of the global USAGE (aura --help) — the plateau objective
  was undiscoverable from the only help the CLI prints (the per-subcommand usage
  already carried it).
- [spec_gap] C1 gains a scope note: bit-identity is per-run; a derived metric
  recomputed by two different command paths may differ by floating-point
  reassociation (<=1 ULP), which is not a C1 violation — ratifies the
  fieldtester's reading of the sweep-vs-generalize sqn difference.
- [spec_gap] the milestone vocabulary is added to docs/glossary.md:
  cross-instrument generalization, deflated score, overfit probability,
  neighbourhood score, plateau selection, sign-agreement, worst-case floor.

The fieldtest triage spec (docs/specs/fieldtest-*) is removed now its findings
are resolved; the tracked fieldtests/ scenario corpus stays.

Verified: cargo test --workspace green (0 failed), clippy --workspace
--all-targets -D warnings clean; `aura --help` shows --select; the refusals
print their reason.

refs #146
2026-06-26 21:35:10 +02:00
Brummel 1088320571 fix: terminate cleanly on a broken stdout pipe across all family-emitting commands
GREEN for the broken-pipe RED test (c750b9f). Rust's runtime sets SIGPIPE to
SIG_IGN at startup, so a println! to a closed stdout pipe returned EPIPE and
panicked ("failed printing to stdout: Broken pipe", exit 101). Restore the
default SIGPIPE disposition once at the top of main() (cfg(unix), via
libc::signal) so a closed pipe terminates the process cleanly on SIGPIPE
(signal 13 / exit 141 — the conventional Unix CLI outcome, e.g. `yes | head`)
instead of panicking. One process-level reset covers every family-emitting
subcommand (sweep / mc / walkforward / runs family / generalize); the print
sites are untouched (minimal fix).

libc added as a direct aura-cli dependency — already transitive in Cargo.lock,
the standard vetted crate for signal disposition, admitted under the per-case
dependency policy.

Verified by the orchestrator: the broken-pipe test passes 6/6; `aura sweep | head`
exits 141 with no panic in stderr; cargo test --workspace green (0 failed);
clippy --workspace --all-targets -D warnings clean.

refs #146
2026-06-26 21:26:12 +02:00
Brummel 0a06afed29 feat(0078): cross-instrument generalization as a validation step
Last piece of the Inferential-validation milestone (#146): a new
`aura generalize` subcommand grades how consistently a single candidate
holds across a set of instruments — the across-instrument axis of the
same anti-false-discovery concern as trials-deflation (#144, within one
family) and plateau-over-peak (#145, within one instrument's surface).

Aggregator/validator, not a third selector (user-ratified): it runs a
brought candidate (a single-cell stage1-r grid — --fast/--slow/--stop-
length/--stop-k pinned to single values) across an instrument list
(--real SYM1,SYM2,...), collects per-instrument R-metrics, and reduces
them to a worst-case floor (min over instruments) + a sign-agreement
count + the per-instrument breakdown. R-only (C10 — R is the only
account/instrument-agnostic unit); the worst-case min is the cross-
instrument sibling of PlateauMode::Worst and satisfies the non-
domination constraint by construction (a strong instrument cannot lift
a min). Rejected: a cross-instrument t-stat mean/std*sqrt(M), which
reintroduces the pooled mean the milestone warns against.

- RunManifest gains a first-class `instrument` lineage field (serde-
  widened, C14/C18 — legacy lines load as None, existing manifest bytes
  unchanged); the compat read-mirror threads it in lockstep.
- FamilyKind::CrossInstrument (C12 comparison axis); the M per-instrument
  runs persist as a CrossInstrument family, each member self-identifying
  via its stamped instrument. The aggregate is recomputable from the
  members (McAggregate precedent), printed live.
- The generalization reduction lives registry-side beside optimize_
  deflated/optimize_plateau (C9), reusing resolve_metric/metric_value/
  is_r_metric; check_r_metric is the data-free pre-check the CLI runs
  before evaluating any instrument.
- Additive: existing sweep/walkforward/mc/standalone paths stay byte-
  identical (C23 — instrument omitted when None via skip_serializing_if).

Verified by the orchestrator: cargo test --workspace green (0 failed —
the new generalization_*, check_r_metric, parse_generalize_*, and the
gated cross-instrument E2E all pass; the E2E ran the real GER40/USDJPY
path on this host, exit 0); cargo clippy --workspace --all-targets
-D warnings clean.

closes #146
2026-06-26 19:04:53 +02:00
Brummel cb32658fd1 feat(0077): prefer a robust parameter plateau over the in-sample peak
Add an opt-in plateau selection objective for walk-forward, recorded on the
same RunManifest.selection carrier #144 introduced. Default argmax is
byte-identical (C23); plateau is reached only via a new --select flag.

What landed:
- FamilySelection / SelectionMode reshape (report.rs): the selection RULE
  (mode) and its ANNOTATION are orthogonal — deflation fields become Option
  (present iff Argmax), plus PlateauMean/PlateauWorst variants and
  neighbourhood_score/n_neighbours (present iff Plateau*). Legacy lines still
  load: the deflation scalars deserialize from bare values via serde default
  (C14/C18). compat.rs embeds FamilySelection by value — reshape flows through
  untouched.
- GridSpace::axis_lens() + SweepBinder::sweep_with_lattice (engine): the grid
  radixes in param_space()/odometer order. sweep() delegates to
  sweep_with_lattice with the lattice dropped, so every existing .sweep()
  caller is byte-unchanged.
- optimize_plateau + PlateauMode + closed_neighbourhood (aura-registry, C9):
  each member scores as the mean/worst of its closed mixed-radix grid
  neighbourhood's metric_value; the winner is the smoothed argmax by the
  metric's direction (earliest-odometer tie, as optimize). Pure, no RNG (C1);
  in-sample only (C2). A higher_is_better helper now sources the per-metric
  direction once, shared by metric_cmp and optimize_plateau.
- CLI --select <argmax|plateau:mean|plateau:worst> (default argmax; unknown
  token exits 2). walkforward_family dispatches via a select_winner helper;
  sweep_over/stage1_r_sweep_over carry the lattice as Option<Vec<usize>>.
  runs-family display gains a plateau(<mode>)=<score> over <n> cells line.

RandomSpace-refuse: walkforward has no --random producer, so the
plateau-without-lattice guard is structural — select_winner returns the
refuse on a None lattice (the caller prints the message and exits 2),
unit-tested at the helper, not via a --random E2E (decided + recorded on #145
comment 1974, with the lattice-seam fork).

Tests: plateau-picks-plateau-not-spike, mean-vs-worst, lower-is-better
direction-flip, closed-neighbourhood golden, single-member degeneracy, C1
determinism; CLI select-parse, select_winner refuse; E2E argmax-byte-identical
(C23), plateau:mean and plateau:worst provenance. Full workspace suite green;
clippy --all-targets -D warnings clean.

closes #145
2026-06-26 16:38:18 +02:00
Brummel a2959050a4 feat(0076): deflate the sweep winner's metric for the number of trials
Adds optimize_deflated beside optimize in aura-registry: the in-sample
walk-forward selection now records, on each OOS winner's manifest, how much
the winner's metric is inflated by the size of the search it won — a deflated
score and (R arm) an overfit probability — without changing which member wins
(additive, C23; a regression test pins optimize_deflated's winner == optimize's).

- R arm (sqn_normalized/expectancy_r/...): a centred moving-block reality-check.
  Each member's per-trade R series is mean-subtracted to impose the no-edge null,
  resampled via the r_bootstrap kernel (extracted to a shared resample_block,
  byte-identical), and the best-of-K null-max gives
  overfit_probability = (count(null >= raw)+1)/(n+1) and
  deflated_score = raw - p95(null). Deterministic given the seed (C1).
- total_pips arm: a closed-form expected-max-of-K dispersion floor
  (inv_norm_cdf + expected_max_of_normals), no probability.

The record (FamilySelection on RunManifest) rides the proven
serde(default, skip_serializing_if) widening + a compat.rs mirror, so legacy
runs.jsonl/families.jsonl lines load unchanged and unstamped sweep/mc/standalone
manifests stay byte-identical (C14/C18). The SelectionMode enum reserves a
Plateau slot for #145. CLI: walk-forward stamps both arms; runs family <id> rank
surfaces a human-readable deflated/overfit line.

Quality review (re-dispatched after the implement-loop's quality gate exhausted)
caught a real defect: on the R arm with positive resamples but no member carrying
trade_rs (a family loaded from disk — trade_rs is serde-skipped), the null was
all-NEG_INFINITY, turning deflated_score into +inf. Fixed by collapsing "no usable
null" (zero resamples OR no trade_rs) into one degenerate floor (deflated == raw,
overfit == 1.0); pinned by optimize_deflated_no_trade_rs_floors_instead_of_infinity.

Verified: cargo test --workspace and cargo clippy --workspace --all-targets
-D warnings both green. Frictionless Stage-1 R; n_eff advisory and reload-time
recompute deferred (spec 0076 Out of scope).

closes #144
2026-06-26 14:53:32 +02:00
Brummel c192dfd344 audit(0075): cycle close — drift-clean; doc-link + trade_rs tripwire tidy; drop ephemera
Architect drift review (c99e7b8..2e77ab1) against the design ledger +
CLAUDE.md invariants: drift-clean, debt only — no contract or spec
violation. Verified intact: C18 wire shape (trade_rs is #[serde(skip)] +
excluded from the hand-written PartialEq; runs.jsonl/families.jsonl bytes
and digests unmoved; mc_r_bootstrap is a printed line, never a record),
C1 determinism (seeded r_bootstrap + disjoint walkforward windows, both
pinned by byte-identical-rerun e2e tests), C7 frictionless Stage-1
(round_trip_cost stays 0.0), C8/C12 streaming reduction (IS sweep folds
O(trades)/member, OOS run non-reduce). The verbatim summarize_r /
r_metrics_from_rs float duplication is guarded by the cross-reducer
equality test — sound.

Tidy applied this close:
- doc-link drift: the new E[R] notation in r_bootstrap / RBootstrap /
  run_mc_r_bootstrap doc-comments was parsed by rustdoc as an intra-doc
  link `[R]` (4 warnings). Wrapped in backticks; doc build now clean.
- coverage micro-gap [low, architect]: added a tripwire asserting a
  populated trade_rs is absent from the serialized JSON (the serde(skip)
  C18-preservation property had no direct test — only Vec::new() was
  serialized before).

Carry-on (benign debt, not fixed): the mc usage literal carries a `usage:`
prefix the sibling sweep/walkforward usages omit — required because the
new `["mc", rest @ ..]` arm now handles the `--real` rejection and the
preserved golden asserts stderr.contains("usage"); churning the golden to
drop the prefix is not worth it.

Removed the cycle's ephemeral spec + plans (docs/specs/0075,
docs/plans/0075, docs/plans/0076) per the lifecycle rule.

Verified: cargo test --workspace 610 passed / 0 failed, clippy -D warnings
clean, cargo doc --no-deps clean.

closes #139
2026-06-26 12:19:07 +02:00
Brummel 2e77ab1dda feat(0075): Monte-Carlo R-bootstrap for OOS validation (iter 2)
Add `aura mc --strategy stage1-r [--real <SYM>]`: run the stage1-r
walk-forward, pool its OOS per-trade R series, and report a moving-block
bootstrap E[R] distribution / CI (one `mc_r_bootstrap` line with an `e_r`
quantile block + P(E[R]<=0)). Completes spec 0075's Monte-Carlo half on top
of iter 1's walk-forward R-reporting.

Engine: `r_bootstrap(rs, n_resamples, block_len, seed) -> RBootstrap` — a
deterministic moving-block bootstrap (non-circular, final block truncated;
block_len=1 = i.i.d. trade-shuffle; clamped to [1,n]; empty -> all-zero),
reusing the existing MetricStats/quantile and SplitMix64.

CLI: parse_mc_args/McArgs split — bare/`--name`/`--trace` route to the
unchanged synthetic seed-resweep `run_mc` (byte-for-byte preserved); the R
path accepts ONLY `--strategy stage1-r`, so a bare `--real` stays a usage
error (mc_rejects_real_flag_with_usage_exit_2 preserved, doc-comment
refreshed). run_mc_r_bootstrap reuses walkforward_family + RMetrics.trade_rs.

Corrective fixes over the plan snippets, both verified: the mc usage string
carries a `usage:` token (the new `["mc", rest @ ..]` arm now handles the
`--real` rejection, and the preserved golden asserts `stderr.contains
("usage")`); `#[allow(clippy::large_enum_variant)]` on McArgs keeps the
unboxed Stage1RGrid field layout.

Scope: single `--real <SYM>` per invocation; cross-symbol pooling is a
deferred follow-on (needs a multi-symbol grammar). Verified: cargo build
clean, full `cargo test --workspace` green (609 passed), clippy -D warnings
clean; bare `aura mc`, SMA walkforward, stage1-r single-run, and C18
round-trip goldens all preserved.

refs #139
2026-06-26 12:12:06 +02:00
Brummel f286bb85f7 feat(0075): walk-forward strategy-selectable + R-reporting (iter 1)
Make `aura walkforward --strategy stage1-r [--real <SYM>]` roll IS->OOS
windows, sweep the stage1-r grid in-sample, pick the winner by an R metric
(sqn_normalized), run it out-of-sample, and report per-window + pooled OOS
R-metrics. The bare SMA walkforward path is byte-identical (its dispatch arm
is verbatim today's body; the pooled `oos_r` block is emitted only when a
window carries an `r` block).

Engine:
- RMetrics gains an in-memory `trade_rs: Vec<f64>` (realised R per closed
  trade), excluded from serde (`#[serde(skip)]`) and from a hand-written
  PartialEq, so the C18 wire shape and every existing equality assertion /
  round-trip stay unchanged. summarize_r now retains the per-trade R vector
  it used to drop.
- New `r_metrics_from_rs(&[f64])` reduces a flat (pooled across-window) R
  series to RMetrics. Its R-distribution arithmetic is copied verbatim from
  summarize_r (the byte-pinned floats must not be algebraically refactored);
  the two copies are guarded in lockstep by a cross-reducer equality test.
  net_expectancy_r = expectancy_r (exact at the Stage-1 cost=0 invariant);
  conviction_terciles_r = [0,0,0] (per-trade conviction is not pooled).

CLI:
- walkforward gains --strategy + the four stage1-r grid flags (reusing
  parse_csv_list / Stage1RGrid); walkforward_family is strategy-dispatched.
- Windowed stage1-r helpers: stage1_r_sweep_over (reduce-mode folded IS
  sweep, O(trades)/member) and run_oos_r (non-reduce OOS run, for the
  stitched pip-equity curve), plus stage1_r_space.

Frictionless Stage-1 R (costs are Stage-2). Verified: cargo build clean,
full `cargo test --workspace` green (SMA walkforward, synthetic mc,
stage1_r_single_run_output_golden, and the C18 round-trips all preserved),
clippy -D warnings clean. Monte-Carlo R-bootstrap is iter 2.

refs #139
2026-06-26 11:21:27 +02:00
Brummel 7e4b91ab5f feat(0074): source real-path pip from the geometry sidecar; drop the authored floor
The data-server now ships per-symbol geometry sidecars, so aura no longer
hard-codes instrument geometry. A consumption grep showed production reads
exactly one `InstrumentSpec` field — `pip_size` — at the real-data path; the
other eight (incl. `instrument_id`) were constructed but never read.

- aura-cli resolves the real-path pip from the recorded sidecar
  (`instrument_geometry` -> `InstrumentGeometry.pip_size`), refusing (exit 2)
  on absent geometry. The authored table no longer gates: any symbol with a
  sidecar + bars now runs (new test: USDJPY, never vetted, resolves its JPY
  pip 0.01 from the sidecar).
- Removed the redundant authored floor: `InstrumentSpec`, `instrument_spec`,
  `VETTED_SYMBOLS`, and the table-only tests. The `InstrumentGeometry` seam
  (the surviving pip source) and its nameability guard are kept.
- `instrument_id` (the "find out"): no production consumer. The position-event
  table's `instrument_id` is a decoupled caller parameter; the engine never
  imports an instrument spec. Dropped with the struct.
- The example `pip_size_of` is re-sourced to the sidecar; the pure-structural
  blueprint tests use a literal pip to stay archive-independent.

Speculative deploy-grade fields and the #124 override/floor tiers are deferred
to the Stage-2 broker that will consume them, read from the sidecar geometry
then. Ledger (C8/C15/#22/#106) updated; #124 collapses to "recorded sidecar
geometry -> refuse" in the meantime.

Verified: cargo test --workspace (all green), clippy -D warnings clean, cargo
doc clean, with the local archive present so the sidecar paths run.

refs #124
2026-06-25 19:06:12 +02:00
Brummel 216cc8c417 feat(0072): stage1 mean-reversion candidate — EWMA Bollinger fade (#137)
Third price-only Stage-1 R strategy: aura sweep --strategy stage1-meanrev fades
deviation from a rolling mean (price above mean+k*sigma -> short, below -> long,
latched +-1), feeding the unchanged bias -> RiskExecutor (vol-stop = R) -> flat-1R
seam. sigma = Sqrt(Ema((price-Ema(price))^2)) reuses the vol_stop deviation-
squared-then-smoothed shape, so the band is built from existing aura-std nodes
(Ema/Sub/Mul/Sqrt/LinComb/Add/Gt/Latch) -> ZERO new nodes. No Delay: the current
bar legitimately belongs to its own band (causal, C2). Swept knobs: --window (one
Ema length ganged across mean+variance) and --band-k; downstream vol-stop R knobs
unchanged.

An in-file test reads the SHIPPED graph's exposure tap to pin the fade polarity
(short above the band, long below) — a latch-set/reset copy-paste from breakout
would invert the signal yet leave the fold-vs-raw and window-grid CLI tests
green. All 588 workspace tests pass (existing R/sma/momentum/breakout goldens
byte-identical); clippy clean.

refs #137
2026-06-25 14:27:30 +02:00
Brummel d845c509d3 feat(0071): stage1 breakout candidate — Donchian channel signal (#137)
A second Stage-1 R strategy candidate for the edge-research milestone, a structurally
different trend mechanic than the refuted SMA-momentum: a Donchian channel breakout.
Swaps only the signal leg of the stage1-r graph —
close -> Delay(1) -> {RollingMax,RollingMin}(N) -> {Gt,Gt} -> {Latch,Latch} ->
Sub = bias in {-1,0,+1} — keeping the vol-stop R definition unchanged, so it screens
under the identical R yardstick (clean A/B vs momentum).

- aura-std: new RollingMax / RollingMin nodes (sliding-window extremum via a monotonic
  deque, O(1) amortized; mirror the Sma/Delay ring-buffer shape, warm-up skip-emit,
  C7/C8). The +/-1 direction latch composes from two existing Latch nodes + Sub (no new
  latch type).
- aura-cli: stage1_breakout_graph + a manual-grid stage1_breakout_sweep_family
  (fully-bound graph per point, sidestepping parameter-ganging since one channel length
  drives both rolling nodes); --strategy stage1-breakout + --channel grid flag; usage
  strings updated.
- Causality (C2): one Delay(1) on close feeds both rolling nodes, so each channel covers
  close[t-N..t-1] — the current bar is excluded. Pinned by a contrastive e2e test (a
  strictly rising series up-breaks every warmed bar; a window including the current bar
  never could) plus a +/-1-latch-hold test.

All existing goldens byte-identical (stage1-r/sma/momentum untouched); folded-no-trace
== raw-trace metrics; workspace tests + clippy green.

refs #137
2026-06-25 13:10:37 +02:00
Brummel eb8653488f feat(0070): wire folding sink reductions into the stage1-r sweep (closes #138)
Completes the M3 fix for BLOCKER #138. The no-trace stage1-r sweep now folds its
reductions online: `stage1_r_graph(reduce=true)` wires `SeriesReducer` (equity,
exposure -> one summary row each) and `GatedRecorder` (gated on
`closed_this_cycle` -> only the trade rows + the final row), and the folded
consumer rebuilds `RunMetrics` from those compact outputs. Per-member memory drops
from O(cycles) (~2 GiB over ~5.5M one-minute bars) to O(trades), so full-history
multi-member sweeps no longer exhaust RAM+swap. The `r_equity` tap is omitted when
reducing (it is consumed only by the `--trace` persistence path).

`reduce = trace.is_none()`: the `--trace` path and the single `run_stage1_r` keep
the raw recorders + `summarize`/`summarize_r` over full rows — the byte-for-byte
reference. A new CLI-seam test
(`sweep_strategy_stage1_r_folded_no_trace_metrics_equal_raw_trace_metrics`) proves
the folded no-trace sweep reports byte-identical per-member metrics to the raw
`--trace` path.

Verified: cargo test --workspace green (42 suites); cargo clippy --workspace
--all-targets -- -D warnings clean; stage1-r goldens byte-identical.

closes #138
2026-06-25 11:24:27 +02:00
Brummel 54a5d68f51 feat(stage1-r-sweep): grid signal+stop timescales via CSV flags
Enabling change for the strategy-research run: `aura sweep --strategy
stage1-r` gains four optional comma-separated grid flags `--fast`,
`--slow`, `--stop-length`, `--stop-k` that become the sweep's grid axes
over the four stage1_r_graph knobs (sma fast/slow length, vol-stop
length, vol-stop k). The family is their cartesian product. This lets a
slow time-series-momentum edge be screened across timeframes — Phase 0
showed fast (2/4-bar) signals are chop-dominated noise on M1, so any
momentum edge lives at slower timescales, and the stop timescale must be
tunable alongside the signal.

Mechanism:
- aura-composites: factor vol_stop and risk_executor into a single
  shared topology body each (vol_stop_inner / risk_executor_inner), with
  the vol-stop knobs either BOUND (the original constant-bind form,
  byte-identical) or left OPEN and named `stop_length` / `stop_k` so
  their slots surface in param_space as sweepable axes. New
  risk_executor_vol_open(risk_budget) is the gridding sibling of
  risk_executor(StopRule::Vol{..}, ..). One body, two arms → topology
  cannot drift; a member at any (length, k) matches the bound form
  byte-for-byte.
- aura-cli: parse_csv_list (generic FromStr, rejects non-numeric/empty),
  pure unit-testable parse_sweep_args, all four knobs gridded via
  .axis(); absent flags fall back to today's exact defaults (fast {2,3},
  slow {6,12}, stop_length {3}, stop_k {2.0}).

Default behaviour byte-identical: all existing goldens/sweep tests stay
green (541 passed, 0 failed; clippy -D warnings clean). Frictionless
Stage-1 R unchanged.

refs #137
2026-06-25 00:43:56 +02:00
Brummel 89d967a940 feat(0067): SQN100 metric + stage1-r sweep --trace
Two additive follow-ups to the cycle-0065/0066 R-sweep surface.

Part A (#130) — n-normalized SQN (SQN100): RMetrics gains sqn_normalized =
(mean_R/stdev_R)·√(min(n,100)), a turnover-robust ranking objective comparable
across sweep members with different trade counts. The raw sqn is kept
byte-identical (computed sqrt(n)*mean/sd, NOT via a factored shared ratio, so
the existing metric does not drift even by 1 ULP). The field carries
#[serde(default)] for C18 back-compat (a pre-0067 r: block deserialises with
sqn_normalized = 0.0). The registry learns Metric::SqnNormalized (opt-in; the
default ranker and raw sqn are unchanged), so `runs family rank sqn_normalized`
works. The 0066 single-run golden is re-baselined (the r: block gains the
field; for n=3 ≤ 100 the cap is inactive so sqn_normalized == sqn).

Part B (#135) — wire --trace for the stage1-r sweep: stage1_r_sweep_family now
honours --trace, persisting each member's equity/exposure/r_equity under
runs/traces/<n>/<member_key>/ via the existing persist_traces_r (mirroring
momentum_sweep_family); the interim run_sweep refusal guard is dropped. --trace
is now symmetric across all three sweep strategies and a swept member is
chartable (chart <n>/<member> --tap r_equity).

Tests: SQN100 cap / below-cap / empty + serde back-compat (engine); rank-by
sqn_normalized + unknown-metric message (registry); an E2E guard that both
SQN values fold from recorded records and agree below the cap (the cross-crate
column seam); inverted stage1-r --trace persistence + a CLI rank-by-
sqn_normalized integration. Full workspace suite green (527 passed, 0 failed);
clippy --all-targets -D warnings clean.

Derived fork decisions logged on #130 and #135 (cap = fixed const 100; opt-in
metric, default ranker unchanged; serde(default); Part B mirrors
momentum_sweep_family + reuses persist_traces_r).

closes #130
closes #135
2026-06-24 18:10:54 +02:00
Brummel 499121e5c8 fix(stage1-r): record fixed R-defining params in swept member manifests
Cycle-0066 close audit found a C18/C10 gap: a stage1-r sweep member's manifest recorded only the floated knobs (fast.length, slow.length) via zip_params, omitting the fixed R-defining params (stop_length, stop_k, bias_scale) that the single run records. A family member must be reproducible from its own manifest (C18), and the constant stop -- which defines 1R -- must be visible so cross-member SQN comparability (C10) is auditable from the family record, not just the swept fast/slow knobs. The sweep run_one now appends the three fixed params, matching the single run; the integration test pins their presence per member.

Verified: full workspace suite 521 passed / 0 failed; clippy -D warnings clean.

refs #133
2026-06-24 16:21:26 +02:00
Brummel b8ed6f4858 feat(stage1-r): R sweep families + rank-by-SQN
Realizes #133 (cycle 0066): SQN becomes the single-number objective for ranking a
Stage-1 sweep family by R signal quality.

aura-registry — metric_cmp learns three higher-is-better R metrics (sqn,
expectancy_r, net_expectancy_r) that reach into RunReport.metrics.r; a member with
r:None sorts to the worst position (treated as -inf via total_cmp), so a pip-only
family ranked by an R metric degrades to ordinal order without error. The
UnknownMetric "known:" list is extended. No persistence change — the family store
already carries the r block.

aura-cli — `aura sweep --strategy stage1-r` sweeps the stage1-r harness over a
fast×slow SIGNAL grid (4 members), each folding the dense R-record via summarize_r so
its RunReport carries r:Some(..). The grid varies only the signal: the stop and
sizing are held fixed because risk_budget is R-invariant (#128) and bias.scale is
sign-only under flat-1R (both degenerate axes for the ranked metric), and because the
stop defines the R unit — varying it would break cross-member SQN comparability (the
motivation for the deferred SQN100, #130). The stage1-r topology is extracted into a
shared stage1_r_graph(.., fast_len, slow_len) helper: the single run binds
Some(2)/Some(4) (output byte-unchanged), only the sweep floats the knobs.

Per-member --trace tracing is deferred (a follow-up): rather than accept the flag and
silently write nothing (a quality-review catch), `aura sweep --strategy stage1-r
--trace` is refused explicitly (exit 2); --name records the rankable family.

Verification — a golden characterization test (stage1_r_single_run_output_golden,
added against HEAD before the refactor) verifies the helper extraction is
byte-preserving; full workspace suite 521 passed / 0 failed; clippy --all-targets
-D warnings clean. The grounding-check that signed the spec first BLOCKed a false
"already byte-pinned" claim, which is why the golden is added rather than assumed.
All load-bearing forks (signal-only grid, None-sorts-worst, --trace refusal, helper
extraction, golden shape) are recorded on the #133 decision log.

closes #133
refs #117 #130
2026-06-24 16:15:45 +02:00
Brummel 3d3baaeb24 refactor(stage1-r): dedicated broker label + intern col-port names (no per-build leak)
Two cosmetic smells the cycle-0065 close audit flagged (#132), neither a
correctness issue:

1. Broker label. run_stage1_r reused sim_optimal_manifest, recording
   broker: "sim-optimal(pip_size=...)" for a harness that also runs a
   RiskExecutor branch. It now overrides the label to
   "sim-optimal+risk-executor(pip_size=...)" so the dual-tap harness reads
   honestly. A new assertion in run_stage1_r_synthetic_folds_an_r_block pins it.

2. col[i] leak. stage1_r_blueprint did format!("col[{i}]").leak() per
   PositionManagement field (14 strings) to satisfy the &'static str port-name
   API -- harmless for a CLI one-shot, but a leak-per-build smell once the
   harness is reused in a sweep / Monte-Carlo loop (the #133 direction). Replaced
   with a process-wide LazyLock<Vec<String>> (COL_PORTS), interned once: any
   number of builds now reuse the same 14 strings. (#132 deferred this to #133,
   but the intern is robust to any reuse pattern, so it lands here cleanly.)

Behaviour-preserving (the port names and the recorded R-record are unchanged);
the broker label is the only observable change, and it is pinned.

Verified: clippy --all-targets -D warnings clean; full suite 514 passed / 0
failed; live `aura run --harness stage1-r` reports
"broker":"sim-optimal+risk-executor(pip_size=0.0001)".

closes #132
2026-06-24 14:45:27 +02:00
Brummel 68605b7d88 refactor(stage1-r): rename the strategy-output param namespace exposure -> bias
Complete the deferred rename tail from cycle 0065's #126 (which renamed only the
typed metric, keeping the param namespace uniformly "exposure" so the single-run
rename would not smuggle in a ~30-site sweep-pinned change). Now renamed together
as one consistent unit, all driven by the Bias node's instance name:

- Bias::builder().named("exposure") -> .named("bias") (the harness builders +
  the engine fixtures in test_fixtures.rs / blueprint.rs);
- the derived knob path exposure.scale -> bias.scale (Composite::param_space
  derives the knob from the node name) -- the sweep .axis/.range bindings and
  .with() points (blueprint.rs, main.rs), the walkforward ParamSpecs
  (walkforward.rs), the member_key dir names, and the JSON byte-pins in
  cli_run.rs / report.rs / main.rs tests;
- the exposure_scale manifest param label -> bias_scale (the single-run manifest
  builders + the streaming_seam / real_bars fixtures).

The rename is surgical: the three targets (named("exposure"), exposure.scale,
exposure_scale) are syntactically distinct from the deliberately-kept "exposure"
forms, which are untouched -- SimBroker's pre-reframe exposure input slot +
prev_exposure + the exposure-integral; the LongOnly / gate / latch ports named
"exposure"; and the on-disk "exposure" tap label (the recorded bias series that
feeds `chart --tap exposure`, decoupled from the node name via
ColumnarTrace::from_rows("exposure", ...)).

No on-disk back-compat break: the knob path is a runtime param address, and
recorded params in old runs.jsonl / families.jsonl are inert data strings (a
pre-existing recorded "exposure.scale" still loads, it is just data).

INDEX.md cycle-0065 realization note amended: the param namespace is recorded as
the now-completed tail; the SimBroker slot + the on-disk tap label remain the
deliberate permanent keeps (#117), and exposure_sign_flips stays a serde alias.

Verified: cargo build --workspace --all-targets clean; clippy --all-targets
-D warnings clean; full suite 514 passed / 0 failed (source + byte-pins renamed
together); live `aura run` emits "bias_scale", `aura sweep` emits "bias.scale".

closes #134
refs #126 #117
2026-06-24 14:40:51 +02:00
Brummel 5c6de45b6e fix(cli): list valid taps on bad --tap, make --help uniform across subcommands
Two CLI-UX defects the Stage-1 R fieldtest surfaced (#131):

1. Tap discovery. `aura chart <name> --tap <bad>` rejected an unknown tap but
   the error omitted the valid names. filter_to_tap now enumerates the run's
   available taps in the message ("... (available: equity, exposure)"), so the
   user can correct a typo instead of guessing -- refuse, but help.

2. Uniform --help. `aura chart --help` errored with "unexpected chart argument
   '--help'" (exit 2) and `aura run --help` leaked usage to stderr via the
   error path, while bare `aura --help` printed to stdout (exit 0). main() now
   intercepts `--help`/`-h` anywhere in the invocation, prints usage to stdout,
   and exits 0 -- uniform for every subcommand. The now-dead bare-flag match arm
   is removed (the early intercept covers it).

RED-first: the existing chart_tap_nonexistent test gains an available-taps
assertion (was: message had no names), and a new per_subcommand_help test pins
`aura <sub> --help` -> stdout usage + exit 0 for run/chart/sweep/walkforward/
mc/graph/runs (was: chart --help exited 2). Unknown-subcommand stays exit 2.

Verified: clippy --all-targets -D warnings clean; full suite 514 passed / 0
failed (one new test); live `aura chart --help` prints usage to stdout, exit 0.

closes #131
2026-06-24 14:35:51 +02:00
Brummel 0288878ad2 refactor(cli): remove the redundant --macd flag, superseded by --harness macd
The --macd flag was a back-compat alias for --harness macd, added in cycle 0065
iter-3 while the uniform `--harness <name>` selector was introduced. With that
selector in place the alias is pure redundancy, so drop it: --harness <name> is
now the sole way to pick a built-in harness.

Removed from parse_run_args: the macd_flag accumulator, its match arm, and the
(harness, macd_flag) conflict resolution -- harness selection collapses to
`harness.unwrap_or(HarnessKind::Sma)`. Both usage strings drop `[--macd]`; the
parse_run_args doc and the parse_real_args note no longer cite the flag.

The MACD harness itself is untouched: run_macd, the macd() composite, and
`--harness macd` all stay. Tests updated -- the alias test becomes a positive
`--harness macd -> Macd` test plus an assertion that `--macd` is now rejected as
an unknown token; the "repeated --macd" edge is dropped (the flag is gone, and
repeated-flag strictness is still covered by --harness/--trace).

INDEX.md: the two realization notes that documented `--macd` as a live run form
updated (`aura run [--real ...]`; `run --harness macd`). The historical
graph-viewer retirement note and the frozen fieldtest capture are left as the
record of their time.

Verified: clippy --all-targets -D warnings clean; full suite 513 passed / 0
failed (assertions rewritten in place, no test count change); live smoke --
`aura run --harness macd` emits a RunReport, `aura run --macd` exits with the
updated usage.
2026-06-24 13:57:15 +02:00
Brummel 1a6eafa056 refactor(composites): extract Stage-1 composite-builders into their own crate
Dissolve the aura-engine -> aura-std dependency by moving the vol_stop /
risk_executor composite-builders out of aura-engine into a new aura-composites
crate. This restores the engine's domain-free layering, which the
composites-in-engine placement (cycle 0065) had inverted.

Why: the engine routes type-erased Scalar records and never names a concrete
node -- summarize_r reads the PositionManagement record positionally, by column
index, without linking aura-std (which is exactly why aura-std was a dev-only
dependency before 0065). Parking the node-naming composite-builders inside
aura-engine forced the engine's production code to reference the node library
for the first time (aura-engine -> aura-std), an upside-down layering: the
engine is the foundation the node library builds upon, not the reverse.

The clean home is a dedicated crate that depends on BOTH the engine's
GraphBuilder and the std nodes, leaving each lower crate untouched:

    aura-composites -> { aura-engine, aura-std } -> aura-core   (acyclic)
    aura-engine     -> aura-core only            (domain-free again)
    aura-std        -> aura-core only            (lean node library)

aura-std reverts to a [dev-dependency] of aura-engine (the engine's own E2E
tests -- stage1_r_e2e, random_sweep_e2e, ger40_breakout -- still drive real
std nodes through a bootstrapped Harness; that test-only edge creates no cycle).

Moved with history (git mv):
- crates/aura-engine/src/composites.rs           -> crates/aura-composites/src/lib.rs
- crates/aura-engine/tests/risk_executor.rs      -> crates/aura-composites/tests/
- crates/aura-engine/tests/vol_stop_composite.rs -> crates/aura-composites/tests/

Consumers rewired: aura-cli imports risk_executor / StopRule from aura_composites;
the moved tests import the builders from the crate under test. The intra-doc link
to RollMode and the module rationale doc are updated for the new home.

Behaviour-preserving: workspace build clean; clippy --all-targets -D warnings
clean; full suite 513 passed / 0 failed, identical to baseline (the two moved
test files run unchanged under aura-composites); cargo doc --no-deps clean (no
broken intra-doc links).
2026-06-24 13:44:44 +02:00
Brummel c6c1d3bb10 feat(stage1-r): rename the exposure_sign_flips metric to bias_sign_flips (#126)
Complete the typed-field half of the exposure->bias rename - the one the cycle-0065
close audit flagged as aging worst (a serde-stable on-disk key).

- RunMetrics.exposure_sign_flips -> bias_sign_flips with
  #[serde(alias = "exposure_sign_flips")], so legacy runs.jsonl still deserialises
  (pinned by the legacy-read tests, which keep the old key); new output serialises
  bias_sign_flips (the byte-pin tests updated to the new key).
- The registry rank metric: Metric::ExposureSignFlips -> BiasSignFlips, the rank
  string accepts BOTH "bias_sign_flips" and "exposure_sign_flips" (CLI back-compat),
  the error/listing updated; the rank tests exercise both names.
- The MC aggregate field renamed too (McAggregate is hand-rendered to JSON, not
  serde-derived - no alias needed).

Scope held to the typed metric. The strategy-output PARAM NAMESPACE - the
.named("exposure") Bias instance, its exposure.scale knob path (Composite::param_space
derives the knob from the node name), and the exposure_scale manifest label - is a
coherent ~30-site, sweep-pinned surface (the implement loop correctly flagged renaming
the knob as an unscoped expansion touching walkforward + the cli_run byte-pins). Kept
uniformly as "exposure" and deferred to a follow-on so the cluster renames as one
consistent unit. SimBroker's pre-reframe exposure concept and the on-disk "exposure"
tap label stay by the #117 fork decision.

cargo test --workspace green; clippy --workspace --all-targets -D warnings clean; a
live `aura run --harness stage1-r` emits "bias_sign_flips".

closes #126
refs #117
2026-06-24 13:11:46 +02:00
Brummel a6fc48daa7 feat(stage1-r): operate the R layer from the CLI (iter 3)
`aura run --harness stage1-r [--real <SYM>] [--trace <n>]` now runs a Stage-1 R
backtest and prints its signal-quality metrics (the R block) in the RunReport
JSON - one shell call, the research loop's primary verb, ergonomic for Claude
to drive.

What shipped:
- vol_stop + risk_executor promoted from test fixtures to public aura-engine
  composite-builders, with a StopRule{Fixed,Vol} axis (C11). aura-std becomes a
  normal dependency of aura-engine (the composites are the engine's convenience
  layer over the standard nodes - the sibling tier of summarize_r; the graph
  stays acyclic: aura-engine -> aura-std -> aura-core). Both fixtures call the
  public fns; a Vol-backed RED test pins the new match arm.
- stage1_r_blueprint fans one bias into BOTH a SimBroker (pip) and the
  RiskExecutor (R), so one report carries both yardsticks honestly. run_stage1_r
  folds summarize (pip) + summarize_r (R, round_trip_cost 0.0 - Stage-1 is
  frictionless signal quality) and sets RunMetrics.r = Some(..). An r_equity tap
  (cum_realized_r + unrealized_r via LinComb) persists through a separate 3-tap
  persist_traces_r and renders via the existing `aura chart --tap r_equity`.
- `aura run --harness <sma|macd|stage1-r>`: a parse_run_args tokenizer replaces
  the five `run` literal-slice arms so --harness/--real/--from/--to/--trace
  compose in any order; --macd kept as a back-compat alias; --harness sma the
  default. A compile-time match over Rust-authored built-ins - not a runtime node
  registry, not a DSL (C9/C17): the CLI runs an authored harness, it does not
  wire one.

Back-compat: --harness sma/macd leave RunMetrics.r = None, so skip_serializing_if
keeps pip-only and legacy runs.jsonl JSON byte-unchanged; the plain-run tap list
stays ["equity","exposure"].

Refactor beyond the plan (verified behavior-equivalent): the old standalone
parse_real_args was orphaned by the new tokenizer, so it and its now-redundant
unit test were removed and run's --real parsing inlined into parse_run_args. The
--real strictness (empty-symbol, non-i64 ms, repeated-flag, window-requires-real
-> exit 2) is preserved and now pinned by
parse_run_args_rejects_malformed_real_and_repeated_flags (added to restore the
deleted coverage). All five run_real integration tests stay green.

Verification: cargo build/test --workspace green (every crate, 0 failed); clippy
--workspace --all-targets -D warnings clean. The full diff was adversarially
reviewed (run-arg refactor equivalence against the removed function, harness
wiring, C1/C2/C9/C17, the serde back-compat pin) - verdict SOUND; the one flagged
coverage gap is closed here.

Follow-on (noted, not done): the stage1-r manifest reuses the
"sim-optimal(pip_size=...)" broker label; a dedicated "risk-executor" label would
read more honestly for a dual-tap harness that runs a RiskExecutor branch.

closes #129
refs #117 #128
2026-06-24 12:09:58 +02:00
Brummel 2c43296c2c feat(stage1-r): bias rename + stop-rule + position-management + summarize_r (iter 1)
Iteration 1 of the Stage-1 "R-based signal quality" cycle (spec 0065): a
strategy's signal quality, measured in R on its unsized bias stream, feed-forward.
New discrete-trade machinery, NOT a SimBroker extension.

What lands:
- exposure -> bias (refs #126): the Exposure node/type/file/output-field renamed to
  Bias (computation unchanged: clamp(signal/scale,-1,+1); the SEMANTICS change — the
  output is the unsized strategy bias, sizing leaves the strategy). Scoped to the
  semantic core; behaviour-preserving cosmetics are deferred (see below).
- stop-rule nodes (refs #119): VolStop = k*EMA(|price - prev_price|) (one fused node;
  the volatility that defines 1R, close-to-close — true-range ATR deferred, needs
  OHLC) + FixedStop (constant, the test fixture / fixed-vs-vol structural-axis sibling).
- PositionManagement (refs #127): the stateful heart. Latches the entry-cycle stop
  distance as the FROZEN R-denominator (never re-read), marks/exits no-look-ahead like
  SimBroker (a position earns from the next cycle; an exit realises against the cycle's
  close), and emits ONE dense per-cycle R-record (C8). Stop-outs are NOT capped at -1R
  (a gap through the stop realises R < -1 — the honest loss tail); R is computed
  size-invariantly (size = (exit-entry)*dir / latched_dist cancels). The trade ledger
  is the rows where closed_this_cycle; the R-equity is cum_realized + unrealized; a
  position open at window end is the last row (open=true) — explicit, never silent MtM.
- summarize_r + RMetrics (refs #129): the post-run fold (NOT an in-graph node —
  recorders drain post-run). E[R], win-rate, profit-factor, avg win/loss R, by-trade
  max R-drawdown, n_open_at_end (window-end force-close). SQN / conviction terciles /
  net-of-cost / RunMetrics.r are iteration 2.

Design adversarially hardened before implementation (12-juror refute panel; decisions
on #117). Ratified implementer deviations from the plan snippet, verified by hand:
- col-4 `direction` tracks the OPEN position at cycle end (window-end synthesis; names
  the reopened leg on a reversal), falling back to the closed trade's dir only when
  flat. summarize_r does not read col 4; the R-metrics are unaffected.
- .named("exposure") kept on the 4 previously-unnamed Bias nodes so the auto-derived
  param-path stays exposure.scale (no manifest/dir-name drift) — the unnamed nodes
  would otherwise flip to bias.scale.
- intra-doc links [`Exposure`] -> [`Bias`] in sim_broker/latch + the sample-model test
  pin (cosmetic, behaviour-neutral; broken intra-doc links fail cargo doc).
- the E2E drives a full bootstrapped Harness (stronger than the plan's direct-node
  drive — exercises the real cross-crate producer->consumer seam).

Deferred (behaviour-preserving, separate cosmetic pass — NOT this iteration):
RunMetrics.exposure_sign_flips / Metric::ExposureSignFlips, SimBroker/LongOnly
"exposure" input ports, the "exposure" tap/trace names, and the .named("exposure")
instance labels. Iteration 2: the Sizer seam, the RiskExecutor composite (+ the Veto
documented-seam), summarize_r enrichment, RunMetrics.r, and the CLI/recording surface.

Verification (orchestrator-run, not agent-claimed):
- cargo build --workspace: clean.
- cargo test --workspace: all green, 0 failed (incl. the new bias/stop_rule/
  position_management unit tests, the summarize_r arithmetic tests, and the
  stage1_r_e2e capstone + layout guard).
- cargo clippy --workspace --all-targets -- -D warnings: clean (exit 0).
- Keystone RED tests pass: no_lookahead_bias_exit_realises_the_held_move,
  stop_out_is_not_capped_at_minus_one_r, no_gap_stop_is_exactly_minus_one_r,
  reversal_closes_one_leg_and_reopens, open_at_window_end_is_carried_on_the_last_row.

refs #117 #119 #126 #127 #129
2026-06-23 19:48:58 +02:00
Brummel 2957561c30 fix(chart): mean-decimate the bounded exposure series instead of a min/max band
The serve-time decimation (#108) reduced every series by per-bucket min/max. That is
the right envelope for a cumulative equity curve but wrong for the bounded exposure
stream (C10, f64 ∈ [-1,+1]): over a multi-year window each ~hundreds-of-bars bucket
straddles sign flips, so min/max is ±1 in nearly every bucket and the exposure
collapses to a solid -1..+1 band that reads as per-point oscillation — even for a
calm strategy (a 50/200 member flips only 0.81% of bars yet still bands out).

Make decimation tap-aware (RED-first, #111): a new `ReduceKind {MinMax, Mean}` on
each Series, set by the chart builders via `reduce_for_tap` (exposure -> Mean, else
MinMax). `decimate` honours it — a Mean series emits the per-bucket mean (its
net/duty-cycle level) in both spine slots, a MinMax series keeps min/max. The shared
spine, the equity rendering, and the page payload are unchanged (reduce is
server-side only, `#[serde(skip)]`). Verified on real GER40 1y M1: the served
exposure series goes from a ±1 band to a smooth net-level line in [-0.38, +0.34].

Rendering the min/max envelope honestly (range bars / OHLC, vs today's polyline) is
the deferred other half — filed as #112.

Verified: cargo test --workspace = 447 passed / 0 failed (incl. the RED-then-GREEN
decimate_mean_reduces_a_bipolar_series_to_its_bucket_level); clippy -D warnings clean.

closes #111
refs #112
2026-06-22 14:34:21 +02:00
Brummel 476342d7b1 feat(chart): decimate served pages + run-context header (visual World cut 2)
Hardens the families-comparison chart page (#107) so it is openable and legible on
real multi-year data. Two halves, both confined to the CLI render path (engine +
registry untouched, C14):

#108 — serve-time min-max decimation. A pure `decimate(ChartData, buckets)`
transform partitions the shared union-ts spine into <=~2000 buckets and emits each
series' per-bucket min+max (nulls preserved), bounding the served page to a few
thousand points regardless of the underlying M1 point count. Applied in emit_chart
on both the single-run and family paths; a no-op under budget (every existing
fixture). Full recorded data stays on disk; only the page is thinned. For a
walk-forward family the null-fill blow-up collapses for free (an all-null bucket
stays null). Deterministic (C1).

#102 — a run-context header. A `ChartMeta` (name/commit/window/broker/seed/taps,
+ member count for a family, + bound params for a single run) is built from the
RunManifest in build_chart_data / build_comparison_chart_data (which gain a `name`
arg), injected into window.AURA_TRACES.meta, and rendered by a new pure buildHeader
in chart-viewer.js (headless .mjs-guarded). The family window is the SPAN across
members (min from, max to), not the first member's window — the only reading that
labels a disjoint walk-forward family's true OOS coverage (it collapses to the
shared window for sweep/MC). Reuses the existing render_value for param display
(no new Scalar Display, keeping C7's tag-only param plane). The earlier
"manifest is NOT carried into the page" render pin is flipped to a positive one.

Verified: cargo test --workspace = 446 passed / 0 failed; cargo clippy --workspace
--all-targets -D warnings clean. New coverage: 5 decimate unit tests, single-run +
family meta wiring (incl. the span-window invariant), a buildHeader headless guard,
and two end-to-end cli_run tests pinning the served-page meta at the binary boundary.

closes #108
closes #102
2026-06-22 12:37:09 +02:00
Brummel 4c64feb9ed feat(chart): aura chart <family> overlays a family's members; --tap + write-guard
`aura chart <name>` now branches on the name's on-disk kind: a single run charts
its taps as before; a FAMILY overlays one tap (default equity) across all its
members in one self-contained uPlot page, consistent across sweep / MC /
walk-forward. Members share ONE y-scale (they measure one quantity — that is what
makes the overlay comparable, unlike the single-run overlay of different taps),
and align on the union-ts spine via the existing join_on_ts: sweep/MC members
share the window (true overlay), walk-forward members are disjoint OOS windows
(null-complementary -> the stitched curve). One mechanism, three correct readings.

- build_comparison_chart_data (one labelled Series per member, shared y_scale_id);
  filter_to_tap (single-run --tap restricts to one tap; no --tap = all taps,
  unchanged); parse_chart_args (`<name> [--tap <t>] [--panels]`, any order);
  emit_chart name-kind branch; USAGE updated.
- Write-guard: ensure_name_free is now called once per tracing command (run /
  run --macd / run --real -> Run; sweep / mc / walkforward -> Family) so a name
  cannot be reused across kinds — name resolution stays a total function.

Refuse-don't-guess throughout (exit 2, never panic). Engine untouched (C9/C14).
Tasks 2-3 of plan 0061; Task 1 (registry) landed in 9b2adcb.

Verified: cargo test --workspace green (no failures; new unit + integration tests
incl. family-overlay, single-run --tap filter, cross-kind collision RED-then-green),
cargo clippy --workspace --all-targets -D warnings clean, cargo build --workspace
clean. Benign clippy-forced deltas vs the literal plan (no behaviour change): a
local MemberRows type alias (type_complexity), let-chains in the six guards
(collapsible_if), and dropping the now-dead TraceStoreError import.

closes #107
2026-06-21 18:54:17 +02:00
Brummel 094d63bc47 fix(family-stdout): unify family-wrapper key order with the store
The sweep / walk-forward / mc family-member stdout lines routed the embedded
RunReport through serde_json::json! -> a serde_json::Value, which re-alphabetizes
the manifest keys (broker-first) and, for mc, even reordered the top-level keys
(seed after report). That diverged from the commit-first declaration order that
RunReport::to_json and the stored families.jsonl already use.

Splice the pre-serialized report into a hand-built line via family_member_line /
mc_member_line so each family-member stdout line is byte-identical to its
families.jsonl record (commit-first manifest, seed between family_id and report).
RED-first: the two new key-order tests fail against the old json! helpers and pass
after the format! rewrite.

closes #99
2026-06-21 16:31:52 +02:00
Brummel 99fd32b1f9 feat(real-family): realistic strategy lengths over real data
The built-in family grid was calibrated for the synthetic demo streams (18/60
bars), where trend SMA 2-5 / MACD 2-4-3 are the only lengths that warm. Over real
M1 data those are noise — ~9000 exposure sign-flips per month, a strategy trading
the bid-ask wiggle, not a trend.

DataSource::strategy_lengths() makes the grid data-kind-dependent (like
wf_window_sizes): synthetic keeps {2,3}x{4,5} + MACD 2/4/3 (byte-unchanged); real
uses {50,100}x{200,400} trend SMAs + standard 12/26/9 MACD. Threaded through
sweep_family + sweep_over (the walk-forward in-sample sweep). Over real EURUSD the
monthly flip count drops from ~9000 to ~130-310 — a genuine trend cross.

This is a demo-strategy calibration patch (ledger C22 amendment notes it as such);
the real answer is project-authored strategies owning their own grid (C9), deferred
to the project-env work.

Verified: cargo test -p aura-cli (all green, synthetic byte-unchanged),
clippy -D warnings clean; real sweep probe shows ~130-310 flips/month.

refs #106
2026-06-21 16:06:28 +02:00
Brummel 8e5d14b2bb feat(real-family): --real parser + dispatch wiring; complete the feature
Plan 0060 Tasks 4-5 (#106): wire `aura sweep|walkforward --real` end to end.

- A shared RealWindowGrammar accumulator holds the `--real <SYMBOL> [--from <ms>]
  [--to <ms>]` grammar (flag-repeat strictness, empty-symbol + window-without-real
  rejection) for both parsers, mirroring parse_real_args.
- parse_sweep_args grows the DataChoice 4th element; parse_walkforward_args is new
  (no --strategy axis). The sweep + walkforward dispatch arms become rest-matched,
  build the DataSource via from_choice (build-or-refuse on un-vetted symbol /
  absent data), and run. USAGE documents the --real tails. mc stays exact-matched,
  so `aura mc --real` falls through to usage + exit(2) — Fork A: MC excluded (its
  seed varies a synthetic price-walk, undefined over real data).
- Gated integration tests (skip on no local data): sweep --real EURUSD persists 4
  portable member dirs over real bars and charts; walkforward --real EURUSD
  persists one oos<ns> dir per rolling window; same real sweep twice is
  byte-identical (C1). Un-gated: un-vetted symbol, window-without-real, and
  mc --real each refuse with exit 2.
- Remove the now-redundant `#[allow(dead_code)]` from the Task-1 provider: every
  const, both enums, and every method are live once the wiring lands.

Verified end-to-end over real EURUSD data: sweep --real -> 4 members; walkforward
--real over 2024 -> 9 rolling OOS windows; all refusals exit 2. Full workspace
test + clippy -D warnings green.

closes #106
2026-06-21 15:29:28 +02:00
Brummel 2a6ca47acd feat(real-family): thread DataSource + pip through the family builders
Plan 0060 Tasks 2-3 (#106): the family builders now take a &DataSource and draw
their source, pip, window, and walk-forward roller sizes from it instead of the
hardcoded synthetic VecSource / SYNTHETIC_PIP_SIZE.

- sample_blueprint_with_sinks / momentum_blueprint_with_sinks take a pip_size
  (un-hardcode the SimBroker); every caller threads it.
- sweep_family / momentum_sweep_family / walkforward_family / sweep_over /
  run_oos take &DataSource; run_sweep / run_walkforward take a DataSource and the
  dispatch passes DataSource::Synthetic (the --real parser is the next step).
  Synthetic behaviour is byte-unchanged.
- Fix a design gap the implementer correctly bounced on: walk-forward is a
  windowed consumer whose span comes from the 60-bar walkforward_prices, NOT the
  18-bar showcase that full_window() returns. Added DataSource::wf_full_span()
  (synthetic walk-forward span; real = the probed --from..--to) and pointed
  walkforward_family at it. Without it the synthetic roller (24,12,12) over span
  (1,18) exits SpanTooShort.

Verified: cargo test -p aura-cli (all green, synthetic byte-unchanged),
cargo clippy -p aura-cli --all-targets -D warnings (clean).

refs #106
2026-06-21 14:55:39 +02:00
Brummel cf102172ec feat(real-family): DataSource provider + shared real-data helpers
Foundation for `aura sweep|walkforward --real` (#106, plan 0060 Task 1).

- New CLI-side `DataChoice` (parsed) / `DataSource` (opened) provider: the
  synthetic-vs-real source choice as one type, supplying a member's source, pip,
  full/windowed sources, and walk-forward roller sizes. Not yet wired into the
  family builders (plan Tasks 2-5); `#[allow(dead_code)]` marks the wired-later
  items, to be removed once the builders thread `&DataSource`.
- DRY: `run_sample_real`'s inline pip-refusal / no-data refusal / probe-window
  logic is extracted to shared `instrument_spec_or_refuse` / `no_real_data` /
  `probe_window` helpers, now reused by `DataSource::from_choice` / `full_window`
  instead of duplicated.
- Real walk-forward roller-size constants (90d / 30d / 30d in ns, Fork D/F).

The synthetic provider is consumer-dependent by design (full-window consumers draw
showcase_prices; windowed consumers draw walkforward_prices) so the byte-unchanged
guarantee holds across both family paths.

Verified: cargo test -p aura-cli (all green incl. byte-unchanged synthetic path),
cargo clippy -p aura-cli --all-targets -D warnings (clean). Full-workspace gate at
iter close after Tasks 2-5.

refs #106
2026-06-21 14:40:15 +02:00
Brummel 0b73a75d4b feat(momentum): bool-param demo strategy + aura sweep --strategy selector
Proves the #105 generic portable member key end-to-end: a demo strategy whose
params have nothing in common with the SMA-cross demo, swept by the same
machinery, with a bool axis surfacing — conformant — in the member dir names.

- momentum strategy: price -> Ema(length:i64) -> Sub(price-ema) ->
  Exposure(scale:f64) -> LongOnly(enabled:bool) -> SimBroker. Three swept params
  of three kinds incl. a bool; the exposure sink taps the post-gate exposure so
  the bool's effect is in the trace.
- aura sweep gains --strategy <sma|momentum> via a pure, unit-tested
  parse_sweep_args (mirroring parse_real_args); default = SMA-cross, so the
  existing bare / --name / --trace forms are unchanged.
- `aura sweep --strategy momentum --trace mom` persists 8 member dirs named e.g.
  ema.length-5_exposure.scale-0.5_longonly.enabled-true — the bool in the dir
  name, every name matching [A-Za-z0-9._-], each chartable.
- ledger (docs/design/INDEX.md): the C22/#101 member-key note's sweep clause
  amended to the generalised portable form (MC seed{N} / walk-forward oos{ns}
  unchanged).

Self-verified: cargo build --workspace, cargo test --workspace (all green incl.
momentum_param_space_is_ema_exposure_longonly, the 8-point determinism test,
the parse_sweep_args grammar test, and the momentum_sweep_trace integration test
asserting 8 portable bool-bearing dirs + a chartable member), cargo clippy
--workspace --all-targets -D warnings.

refs #105
2026-06-21 11:32:46 +02:00
Brummel 27f850dc52 feat(sweep-key): generic filesystem-portable member key + LongOnly bool node
Generalises the #105 foot-gun: the family-member trace key was derived from two
hardcoded axis names (f{fast}s{slow}), collision-free only over the built-in SMA
grid. It is now derived from the axes that actually VARY
(SweepBinder::varying_axes) and rendered as a filesystem-conformant directory
component:
- charset restricted to [A-Za-z0-9._-] (valid on Linux/Windows/macOS, also
  URL-path- and cloud-sync-safe); any other byte sanitised;
- case-less values (i64/timestamp decimal, bool true/false, f64 via Display, no
  scientific notation) so two members of one family never differ only by letter
  case -> no silent overwrite on case-insensitive filesystems (NTFS/APFS);
- length-capped (MAX_KEY=200) with a version-stable FNV-1a fallback for the
  unbounded-grid edge.

Pinned singleton axes are omitted; the SMA sweep's member dirs change from f2s4
to signals.trend.fast.length-2_signals.trend.slow.length-4 (its --trace
integration test + the stale prose updated accordingly).

Adds the first aura-std node with a bool *param*, LongOnly (a long-only exposure
gate: enabled=true clamps short exposure to >=0, false passes through) — the
block the momentum demo strategy (next commit) sweeps to prove the key generic
over a bool axis. The engine change is one additive pure read accessor; no
existing signature changes, trace state stays out of the engine.

Self-verified: cargo build --workspace, cargo test --workspace (all green incl.
the LongOnly node tests, the member_key worked-examples corpus, the varying_axes
accessor test, and the updated SMA sweep-trace integration test), cargo clippy
--workspace --all-targets -D warnings.

refs #105
2026-06-21 11:15:22 +02:00
Brummel d3cb5f8052 feat(family-traces): persist per-member streams for sweep/MC/walk-forward
Family runs (sweep, Monte-Carlo, walk-forward) ran a full harness per
member and drained its equity+exposure recorders, but immediately folded
the streams to metrics and discarded them — so the C21 family-comparison
view had no per-member data to chart. A new opt-in `--trace <name>` on
`aura sweep|mc|walkforward` now persists each member's streams to disk,
mirroring the single-run `aura run --trace` path. Any single member is
chartable today via `aura chart <name>/<member_key>`; the comparison view
itself is a later cycle.

Design:
- Persist INSIDE each per-member closure (aura-cli), reusing persist_traces
  verbatim — the engine and the family types are untouched. The closures
  already held the drained rows; they now bind them once, build the
  manifest, persist when --trace is set, then fold as before.
- Content-derived, deterministic member keys (MC seed{N}, sweep f{fast}s{slow},
  walk-forward oos{ns}). The engine HOFs are Fn + Sync — members run in
  parallel, so a runtime ordinal counter would be non-deterministic (a C1
  break); keys derive from what each closure receives deterministically.
  sweep_member_key panics (naming the axis) if the grid lacks a key axis,
  rather than silently collapsing two points to a shared dir.
- Each member is a standalone run-dir at runs/traces/<name>/<member_key>/
  (persist_traces with a slash-name; TraceStore nests via create_dir_all),
  so the existing single-run viewer charts a member with no view-side code.
- Opt-in: without --trace, stdout and the run registry are byte-unchanged;
  the cardinality cost of N members x full resolution stays user-chosen.

Out of scope (deferred): the family-comparison view (overlay/small-multiples),
decimation/LOD, a binary trace container.

Verified locally: cargo build --workspace, cargo test --workspace (all green,
incl. 3 new family persistence tests + a sweep determinism test + 2
sweep_member_key unit tests), cargo clippy --workspace --all-targets
-D warnings (clean). The pre-existing family determinism and single-run
trace tests pass unchanged (no-trace path is byte-identical).

closes #104
2026-06-20 19:56:36 +02:00
Brummel 45cc1c44c9 feat(trace-charts): ordinal x-axis default + zoom/pan/cursor-sync (viewer Tier-1)
The served trace chart's x-axis no longer plots against raw timestamps by
default — non-trading gaps (nights, weekends) left horizontal blanks that
dominated the view. The x spine is now ordinal by default: every recorded slot
sits at an even position, so gaps collapse and the signal fills the width. A
header toggle flips to continuous (real-time-proportional) spacing and back;
default ordinal honours the requested "x-axis should not be continuous", with
continuous as the one-click option.

Comfort, all on the read/render side (the engine and the Rust serve contract
are untouched — window.AURA_TRACES still carries the real xs, the ordinal
indices are derived client-side):
- ordinal mode keeps the axis honest: ticks and the legend value-readout map a
  collapsed index back to the real xs[i], never the index itself.
- wheel-zoom (x, cursor-anchored), drag-pan, double-click-reset on the plot
  (uPlot's default drag-box-zoom is disabled so drag pans).
- panels share a cursor.sync key, so the crosshair lines up across stacked
  panels.

Confined to chart-viewer.js (buildCharts gains an xMode param + a wheelZoomPlugin
factory; mount re-renders on the toggle) and render.rs (CHART_HEAD toggle button
+ a chart-only style). The two twin node guards (build/gaps) re-point to the
ordinal default in lockstep; a new x-mode guard pins ordinal-default / continuous
/ panel-sync / plugin wiring, and a label-honesty guard (gappy-traces fixture,
xs far from the index spine) pins that ordinal ticks report the real timestamp.

Verified: cargo test --workspace green (incl. the four chart guards + render
inline tests), clippy --all-targets -D warnings clean, e2e (aura run --trace +
aura chart) emits a self-contained page defaulting to ordinal with the toggle.

Spec docs/specs/0057, plan docs/plans/0057 (boss-signed; grounding-check PASS).
Derived-fork decision log in the issue comments.

closes #103
2026-06-19 19:00:33 +02:00
Brummel 15ee6d5f4f feat(trace-charts): serve persisted traces as a web chart (iter 2)
Iteration 2 (serve half) of the visual face — spec 0056 / plan 0056:
read a persisted run's traces and serve them as a self-contained uPlot
HTML chart. Completes the goal "tap data from a graph, serve it as a
chart in the browser".

- chart-viewer.js (first-party): a pure buildCharts(traces, mode) that
  maps the injected window.AURA_TRACES to uPlot configs (no DOM) — overlay
  = one plot, every series on its own y-scale over the shared xs; panels =
  one plot per series, all on the same timestamp x. A browser-only mount()
  instantiates the vendored global uPlot. Guarded by a node .mjs DOM test
  (+ a sparse/gaps variant) shelling out exactly like viewer_dot.rs.
- render_chart_html + ChartMode/ChartData/Series (aura-cli/render.rs):
  mirrors render_html — self-contained page, uPlot (1.6.32, vendored
  d534f10) + chart-viewer.js inlined via include_str!, data injected as
  window.AURA_TRACES.
- emit_chart + build_chart_data (aura-cli/main.rs): the spec-§6 3-step
  union-spine alignment — xs = sorted-dedup union of every tap's ts; a
  synthetic empty-payload spine + ALL taps as symmetric join_on_ts sides
  (no tap privileged, no point dropped); flatten each (tap,column) to a
  Series of Option<f64>. New arms `aura chart <name> [--panels]`; a
  missing run is stderr + exit 2 (TraceStoreError::NotFound), never a
  panic. USAGE advertises the verb in lockstep.

Verified by the orchestrator: `cargo test --workspace` green (incl. the
node guards, render_chart_html, and the chart e2e); `cargo clippy
--workspace --all-targets -D warnings` exit 0; and a real end-to-end —
`aura run --trace demo && aura chart demo` emits a 57KB self-contained
page (doctype + inlined uPlot + AURA_TRACES carrying the equity/exposure
series), `--panels` reflects the panels mode, `aura chart nope` exits 2.
Implementer deviation folded in (compiler-prescribed): serde added to
aura-cli/Cargo.toml for the Series derive (Cargo.lock updated).

refs #101
2026-06-19 00:52:45 +02:00
Brummel 8bb5256041 feat(trace-charts): persist recorder taps to disk (iter 1)
Iteration 1 (persist half) of the visual face — spec 0056 / plan 0055:
tap data from a graph and save it to disk so it can later be charted
(the serve/chart half is iteration 2).

- ColumnarTrace (aura-engine): a drained tap <-> columnar SoA form
  ({tap, kinds, ts, columns}); values coerced to f64 for plotting with
  the base type preserved in `kinds` (C7); to_rows rebuilds uniformly-f64
  rows for the serve-side join. Pure (C1), beside join_on_ts/summarize.
- TraceStore (aura-registry): a per-run directory under
  runs/traces/<name>/ — one <tap>.json per tap + an index.json (manifest
  + tap order), beside the families.jsonl sibling store. Missing run =
  NotFound (no panic); corrupt file = Parse{file}.
- CLI: a shared persist_traces helper threaded into run_sample /
  run_macd / run_sample_real via an orthogonal `trace: Option<&str>`;
  new arms `aura run [--macd] --trace <name>` and `--trace <name>` on
  `run --real`. The default (no --trace) run is byte-for-byte unchanged.

Verified by the orchestrator: `cargo test --workspace` green (incl. the
4 columnar_trace, 3 trace_store, 4 cli_run e2e, and the 4-tuple
parse_real_args tests); `cargo clippy --workspace --all-targets -D
warnings` exit 0. Implementer deviations folded in, all
compiler-prescribed: #[derive(Debug)] on RunTraces (the RED tests
panic-format a Result over it), #[allow(clippy::type_complexity)] on
the parse_real_args 4-tuple (mirrors the crate's sample_harness idiom).
Default-run byte-identity stays pinned by run_prints_json_and_exits_zero.

refs #101
2026-06-19 00:14:18 +02:00
Brummel 3dac2c0c99 refactor(aura-cli): retire the dead-end runs list/rank CLI surface
Since cycle 0045 the flat runs.jsonl store has had no producer (sweep/mc/
walkforward persist to the family store; `aura run` does not persist), so
`aura runs list` / `runs rank` read a store nothing populates — a live dead-end
surface, the honesty gap the Runway milestone closes.

Resolve the C18 deferred fork (INDEX.md) as (b) RETIRE: drop the two CLI commands
+ their dispatch arms, usage fragments, and the now-unused load_runs_or_exit.
Families (sweep/mc/walkforward, C21) subsume standalone over-time comparison. The
aura-registry flat lib API (append/load/rank_by/optimize) is RETAINED — optimize
backs walk-forward's in-sample step, rank_by backs `runs family ... rank`.
`runs families` / `runs family` are untouched.

Decision recorded on #73 (user-directed (b), 2026-06-18). Cosmetic sub-item
(json! family-wrapper -> to_json() stdout key-order unification) deferred to a
follow-up: json! routes the embedded report through serde_json::Value, which
re-alphabetizes keys, so it needs manual JSON construction, not a trivial swap.

RED-first: the retire test asserted `runs list`/`rank` now exit 2 (was exit 0).
Verified: cargo build --workspace, clippy --all-targets -D warnings, and
cargo test --workspace all green.

closes #73
2026-06-18 19:53:26 +02:00
Brummel 26bec6d64a feat: per-instrument pip metadata channel for the sim-optimal broker
The data-server symbol stream carries only price bars, no instrument metadata.
So SimBroker was constructed with one global pip_size literal (0.0001, correct
only for 5-decimal FX), and `aura run --real <symbol>` emitted wrong-unit pip
equity for any non-FX instrument (AAPL.US, BTCUSD off by orders of magnitude).

Add the missing channel to *specify* per-instrument pip:

- aura-ingest: `InstrumentSpec { pip_size }` + `instrument_spec(symbol)` — a
  typed, Rust-authored vetted lookup (NOT Aura.toml; the later Aura.toml schema
  can subsume it). Seeded GER40/FRA40 = 1.0 (index points), EURUSD/GBPUSD/USDCAD
  = 0.0001 (5-dp FX majors); None for an un-specced symbol.
- aura-cli: `sample_harness` and `sim_optimal_manifest` gain a `pip_size`
  parameter; `run_sample_real` looks the pip up by symbol BEFORE any data access
  and refuses (exit 2) an un-specced instrument rather than guessing — honest by
  construction. The looked-up pip reaches both the broker divisor and the
  manifest broker label (`format!`). Every synthetic caller passes the unchanged
  0.0001, now named `SYNTHETIC_PIP_SIZE`. SimBroker (aura-std) is untouched.

Scope: narrowed to the CLI real path — the actual bug. The runnable GER40
examples already bake the correct 1.0 and are NOT buggy; centralizing them
through the lookup is deferred to #98.

Decisions (user-directed, recorded on #22): metadata channel = typed
InstrumentSpec at the source edge; un-specced real symbol refuses; seed =
GER40/FRA40 + FX majors; example refactor deferred. The spec went through the
grounding-check gate; the auto-sign panel surfaced the refusal-behaviour and
scope as genuine design decisions, escalated and resolved by the user.

Tests: instrument_spec unit; manifest pip rendering (1.0 -> "1", 0.0001
unchanged); non-gated CLI refusal (exit 2, no stdout leak, vetted symbol clears
the lookup); gated GER40 binary-boundary honesty (pip_size=1 in the emitted
manifest, deterministic). The pre-existing run_sample_real determinism test was
retargeted AAPL.US -> GER40 (AAPL.US is un-specced and would now refuse at the
lookup); the AAPL.US bounded-window streaming property still lives in
aura-ingest/tests/streaming_seam.rs (literal source, no spec lookup).

Verified: cargo build --workspace, clippy --all-targets -D warnings, and
cargo test --workspace all green; the gated GER40 path ran with local data.

closes #22
2026-06-18 19:36:43 +02:00
Brummel d858caf67b chore: scrub dangling references to deleted specs/plans from sources
docs/specs and docs/plans were retired (prior commit); the source/test
comments that cited them ("spec 0050 §4.1", "spec §Testing N", "per spec",
"the spec's ...") now point at nothing. Strip every such pointer while
preserving the technical substance, the design-ledger contract refs
(C1/C11/C20/C34/C12.1/...), and the Gitea issue refs (#41).

Comment/doc edits only across 20 files — no logic change; full workspace
suite green, clippy clean.
2026-06-18 11:16:28 +02:00
Brummel 9febdb9623 refactor(aura-engine): walk-forward param plane — space on family, tag-free chosen_params, schema-checked param_stability
Make the walk-forward param plane C7-clean and symmetric with the sweep param plane. WalkForwardResult gains `space: Vec<ParamSpec>` (the kinds, once, mirroring SweepFamily.space) and WindowRun.chosen_params changes Vec<Scalar> -> Vec<Cell> (the tag-free coordinate the inner sweep already produces). param_stability now resolves its numeric coercion once per slot against the schema (result.space) into a Vec<fn(Cell)->f64>, then runs a type-blind reduction loop — replacing the old per-window-value scalar_as_f64 with its per-value unreachable!. scalar_as_f64 is deleted.

This overturns cycle 0047's "Fork A" (chosen_params stays Vec<Scalar>), which was justified by Scalar's new serializability. That defense was moot: WalkForwardResult and WindowRun carry no serde derives — they are never serialized; only the embedded oos_report (a RunReport, typed via the 0047 lift) is. So chosen_params is a pure in-memory substrate for param_stability, and Vec<Scalar> made it C7-impure (carrying the kind N×M times at the value, where the kind is per-slot constant). The substantive case — kind at the schema, SweepFamily symmetry, per-value unreachable! eliminated — wins, the same argument-form that retired the {kind,cell} Scalar struct in 0047.

The seam ([A]): walk_forward / walk_forward_with_threads take `space: Vec<ParamSpec>` by value, a sibling of the run-window closure; the Fn(WindowBounds)->WindowRun+Sync bound is unchanged and run_indexed is untouched (space is never captured by the Sync closure, moved onto the result at the end). A debug_assert in walk_forward_with_threads guards the arity coupling (every window's chosen_params.len() == space.len(), guaranteed by the same blueprint). walkforward_family computes the space once before the roll and passes the tag-free winner (chosen_params: best.params) directly, dropping the from_cell+zip reconstruction.

[D]: a Bool param slot coerces to 0/1 (mean = fraction "on"), keeping the coercer total over the knob kinds; a Timestamp slot is structurally impossible (C20) so the schema pass carries one unreachable! (once per slot, never per value). param_stability keeps an `if result.windows.is_empty() { return Vec::new(); }` guard to preserve its documented empty-on-no-windows contract. WalkForwardResult and SweepFamily share the (space + tag-free Cell points + zip_params) idiom but stay distinct types — different axis (Sweep enumerates input coordinates; WF rolls time and chosen_params is the optimizer's output), and WF additionally carries bounds + oos_equity + stitched_oos_equity.

Behaviour-preserving (C1): the three migrated walk-forward tests stay green with identical MetricStats (param_stability_reduces_chosen_params_per_slot still pins mean 2.5 / p50 2.5 / mean 1.5); the i64->f64 and f64 coercions are value-identical to the deleted scalar_as_f64. The one genuinely new behaviour (Bool 0/1) is unexercised by built-in grids and pinned by the new param_stability_reduces_bool_slot_to_fraction_true (mean 0.75, 3-of-4 true).

Gates: build --workspace --all-targets, test --workspace, clippy --workspace --all-targets -D warnings, doc --workspace --no-deps — all clean.

closes #75
2026-06-16 19:01:22 +02:00
Brummel 86746e3d5d refactor(aura-core): Scalar as a native tagged enum, disjoint from Cell; typed RunManifest.params
Scalar was `struct { kind: ScalarKind, cell: Cell }` — "a Cell wearing a kind hat." The recorded reason for that shape was migration ease, which is not a design rationale (CLAUDE.md: rationale != effort), so the struct had no substantive defense. Redefine it as the native tagged union it conceptually is:

    enum Scalar { I64(i64), F64(f64), Bool(bool), Timestamp(Timestamp) }

This is substantively better on four axes: kind/bits skew becomes unrepresentable (illegal states gone); accessors panic loudly on the wrong variant instead of a release-mode silent bit reinterpret; PartialEq derives the documented IEEE-754 / cross-kind value semantics (the hand-roll, needed only because the struct inherited Cell's bitwise compare, is gone); and serde is a plain derive emitting the externally-tagged wire form ({"I64":10}/{"F64":2.5}) — the private ScalarRepr shadow enum that motivated this was never needed. It is also C7-honest: erased-on-the-hot-path (Cell) and self-describing-at-the-edge (Scalar) are two disjoint types bridged by explicit conversion.

The whole public API is preserved (Scalar's fields were private), so call sites do not churn: the enum change is contained to scalar.rs, where cell() now encodes and from_cell() decodes per kind. Cell and ScalarKind are untouched.

With Scalar serializable, lift RunManifest.params from Vec<(String, f64)> to Vec<(String, Scalar)>: the param's kind (an i64 length vs an f64 scale) now survives into the C18 record (runs.jsonl) and the CLI JSON instead of collapsing to f64. scalar_as_param_f64 is deleted; sim_optimal_manifest passes typed params through. This is a deliberate wire-shape change — params now render as tagged scalars; the JSON-asserting tests are updated to the new shape on purpose.

Hand-authored manifest params across the CLI's single-run/mc/macd sites use honest kinds (lengths -> i64, scales -> f64) so they match the sweep path (which already derives correct kinds via zip_params); their in-binary JSON assertions are re-tagged accordingly.

Walk-forward fork resolves with no code change: WindowRun.chosen_params stays Vec<Scalar> (the serializable record carrier), reduced to f64 only at the param_stability statistic boundary (scalar_as_f64 retained). Glossary 'cell' entry updated to describe Scalar as the disjoint tagged union, not 'a cell plus its kind tag'.

Gates: build --all-targets, test --workspace (incl. new scalar_serde_round_trips), clippy -D warnings, doc --no-deps — all clean.
2026-06-16 17:11:25 +02:00
Brummel 43716be10e refactor(aura-engine): Cell into the construction path — param-plane base/frontend split
Cell becomes the carrier of the construction path; Scalar narrows to the author/render boundaries. The validated/enumerated param point carries no redundant kind (it lives once, in the declared param-space); at the author edge the kind is a checksum — two independent sources, the typed value vs. the slot — so the self-describing Scalar stays there. The name->slot binding is dynamic (C23), so the check is necessarily a runtime one and the value must self-describe for it.

Base/frontend split (the AnyColumn push/push_cell pattern one level up): compile_with_cells / bootstrap_with_cells are the kind-check-free base; compile_with_params / bootstrap_with_params are the frontend that adds only the per-value kind checksum, strips to cells (new Scalar::cell(), the partner of Scalar::from_cell), and delegates. lower_items loses its per-primitive kind-check; PrimitiveBuilder::build and the std node builders (sma/ema/exposure/lincomb) read cells.

Boundary: construction -> Cell (PrimitiveBuilder::build, lower_items, GridSpace.axes/points, SweepPoint.params, the sweep closure). Author edges stay Scalar (GridSpace::new, bind, compile_with_params/bootstrap_with_params). walkforward chosen_params stays a self-describing Scalar report record (Option A — WalkForwardResult carries no space); the cell winner is reconstructed once at the WindowRun site via from_cell.

injective-check moved ahead of the arity-check in the frontend to preserve the pre-split error order (DuplicateParamPath before ParamArity). The lossy i64->f64 param projection (scalar_as_f64 / scalar_as_param_f64) is deliberately untouched — a separate follow-up.

Behaviour-preserving (C1): build --all-targets / test / clippy -D warnings / doc all clean across the workspace.
2026-06-16 16:22:17 +02:00
Brummel cd3d1ca9ed refactor(aura-core): split Scalar into a tag-free Cell + ScalarKind
Motivation
----------
`Scalar` was a tagged enum (I64/F64/Bool/Ts), so every scalar value
physically carried its own kind tag. But the kind is already known from
the schema/port/column the value flows through (C7: the type is a
property of the column, not of the value — the hot path is already
columnar `Column<T>`, and `AnyColumn::get` *reconstructs* the tag from
the column on the way out). The per-value tag was therefore redundant
with the kind the surrounding context already holds.

That redundancy had three costs:

  * It baked an implicit `match` (a branch) into every function that read
    a Scalar payload — even where the caller statically knew the type.
    The tag could never be exploited away.
  * Size: a tagged enum is tag + payload = 16 bytes (f64/i64 alignment),
    twice the 8 bytes the value needs. A `Column<Scalar>` would be double
    the memory and half the cache utilisation.
  * It is the shared root of several downstream papercuts we keep hitting
    — the lossy f64 manifest field, the `unreachable!` panic on a
    non-numeric param, the serde-tag question — all symptoms of "the type
    is baked into the value".

Change
------
Introduce `Cell`: a type-erased 64-bit word (`struct Cell(u64)`) that is
not readable without external type context. It is constructed per base
type (`from_i64/from_f64/from_bool/from_ts`) and read only by naming the
type at the call site (`i64()/f64()/bool()/ts()`) — each a branch-free
bit-cast. The hot path resolves the kind once at the boundary (from the
schema) and then reads natively, with no per-value branch. `Cell` knows
nothing of `Scalar` or `ScalarKind`; the dependency is strictly one-way,
and it lives in its own `cell.rs` (more is planned on top of it).

`Scalar` becomes `struct { kind: ScalarKind, cell: Cell }` — the
self-describing form for the dynamic boundaries (builder binding,
serialization, rendering), built on top of `Cell`. Its `as_*` accessors
now `debug_assert` the kind and return the native value (free in
release); calling the wrong accessor is a caller bug, not a checked
`Option`. The variant constructors `Scalar::I64(..)` become associated
fns `Scalar::i64(..)`.

`PartialEq` is hand-written (not derived) to preserve the former enum's
value semantics: kinds must match, then native payloads compare, so f64
keeps IEEE-754 behaviour (`NaN != NaN`, `+0.0 == -0.0`) and a kind
mismatch is never equal even when the raw words coincide. A fixture
(`scalar_eq_is_value_not_bitwise`) pins exactly the cases where bit- and
value-equality diverge, so it can't silently regress. `Cell`'s own
`Eq`/`Hash` stay bitwise — correct for a raw word.

The change is behaviour-preserving: Scalar's observable behaviour is
identical to the pre-Cell enum (the value-equality fixture proves it);
only the internal representation changed. The ~440 call sites across the
workspace are a mechanical constructor rename plus ~12 destructuring
sites (match-arms / `let`-patterns) rewritten to `kind()` + `as_*`.

Verified: cargo build --workspace --all-targets, cargo clippy --workspace
--all-targets -- -D warnings, cargo test --workspace — all green.
2026-06-16 12:12:52 +02:00
Brummel fb8cabf13f feat(aura-engine): sweep named-binding — zip_params + SweepFamily.named_params (C12 #57)
Thread a derived named view of a sweep point so consumers stop hand-zipping
param_space() names onto the bare &[Scalar]. The free function
zip_params(space, point) -> Vec<(String, Scalar)> in aura-core is the one
shared projection; GridSpace retains the ParamSpec list it already receives in
new() (it was validated then discarded); SweepFamily carries it (stamped once
in sweep_with_threads) and exposes named_params(i). The three CLI hand-zip
sites collapse to one zip_params call each.

The run-closure signature `Fn(&[Scalar]) -> RunReport` is byte-unchanged — the
named view is a derived projection (C23: slot is identity, name is derived),
not a closure-currency change — so #52's RandomSpace plugs into the same
sweep() execution layer with zero signature reconciliation (#71 firewall held).

sim_optimal_manifest now takes typed Vec<(String, Scalar)> and does the lossy
f64 collapse internally (one place; the manifest's f64-precursor field owns its
own lossiness — the typed-manifest upgrade stays the deferred typed-param-space
item, a non-goal here). All eight call sites migrated: three sweep closures
pass zip_params, five hand-listing callers (run_sample, run_sample_real,
mc_family, run_macd, run_sample_seeded) pass Scalar::F64 literals.
Behaviour-preserving: the collapse output is identical to the old per-site zip,
so aura sweep / walkforward / run output is byte-identical; SweepFamily.space
threaded into the aura-registry optimize test literal.

Verified by the orchestrator: cargo test --workspace green (4 new tests:
zip_params x2, sweep_family_carries_param_space, family_named_params_round_trips),
cargo clippy --workspace --all-targets -D warnings clean. (rust-analyzer
emitted stale mid-edit diagnostics; the real cargo build/test is clean.)

refs #57
2026-06-15 23:28:04 +02:00
Brummel bcd1072ca8 feat(aura-cli): aura mc + family-aware runs + window_of migration (0045 iter 2)
Iteration 2 of spec 0045 — the CLI surface for orchestration families.

window_of migration: every manifest-window scan (run_sample, sweep_family,
walkforward_family, sweep_over, run_oos, run_macd) now reads the window from
Source::bounds() via window_of(&sources) instead of prices.first()/.last().
Behaviour-preserving (the walk-forward roller boundaries are bar-aligned, so
the producer-supplied window equals the old first/last) — pinned by the
unchanged run_sample (1,7) and walk-forward determinism tests.

aura mc: new built-in Monte-Carlo family on the CLI (monte_carlo over a
built-in seed set + the sample harness re-seeded per draw), persisted via
append_family and rendered as one member line per seed (carrying the
family_id) plus an mc_aggregate line. McAggregate is not Serialize, so the
aggregate line is built from its three MetricStats blocks.

family-aware runs: aura sweep / walkforward / mc now persist to the family
store via append_family with an optional --name (per-kind default), printing
the assigned family_id per member. aura runs families lists family headers
(id, kind, member count); aura runs family <id> [rank <metric>] lists/ranks
one family's members as a unit. An unknown family id is an empty family
(exit 0); an unknown metric is a usage error (exit 2).

Two pre-existing cli_run.rs E2E tests were adapted to the new family
contract (a required consequence of sweep/walkforward switching from the
flat store to the family store — a plan gap caught at implement time): the
sweep-output test now asserts the family-wrapper, and the runs list/rank
flow became the family list / per-family-rank flow (which also exercises the
per-name counter sweep-0/sweep-1 end-to-end). A new E2E test drives aura mc
through the binary.

Known cosmetic detail: the family-wrapped sweep/mc/walkforward stdout nests
the report via serde_json::json! (to_value -> alphabetical keys, leading
"broker"), while runs family / runs list print via RunReport::to_json()
(declaration order, leading "commit"). Both valid JSON; key order is not
load-bearing and the stored families.jsonl uses to_string (declaration
order), so the round-trip is unaffected.

Verification: cargo test --workspace green; cargo clippy --workspace
--all-targets -D warnings clean.

refs #70
2026-06-15 18:27:54 +02:00
Brummel 4764656062 feat(aura-engine): walk-forward family — WindowRoller + walk_forward (C12 axis 3)
The third C12 orchestration axis: walk-forward varies the data window. A
WindowRoller is a pure iterator of WindowBounds { is, oos } — bounds only, never
tick data (#71 firewall). walk_forward runs a caller closure per split disjointly
over the shared run_indexed core (C1), and stitches the OOS pip-equity segments
into one continuous curve (each segment offset by the running sum of prior
segments' finals; an empty segment contributes 0.0, mirroring summarize). C2
no-look-ahead is structural: the roller only ever emits oos.0 == is.1 + 1, pinned
by a zero-tick bounds test. The in-sample optimize (axis 2) is closure-supplied,
not called by the engine: aura-engine has no aura-registry dependency (C9), and
C12 forbids baking search policy into the primitive — the CLI bridges both crates.

Param-stability is on-demand, not stored (the R2 decision, recorded with
provenance on #69): WalkForwardResult stores only the raw per-window outcomes +
the stitched curve, and param_stability(&result) -> Vec<MetricStats> is a public
reduction over the retained per-window chosen params. A stored summary would be
recomputable from the windows (redundant) and would force one statistic canonical
when "stability" admits several; this mirrors SweepFamily (raw points + on-demand
optimize), not McFamily (stored aggregate). MetricStats::from_values is extracted
from McAggregate::from_draws (behaviour-preserving — the 7 mc tests stay green)
and gains serde so the CLI summary renders it and #70 lineage can persist it.

`aura walkforward` runs a built-in rolling walk-forward over a synthetic windowed
source: per window it sweeps the built-in grid in-sample, optimizes by total_pips,
runs the chosen params out-of-sample, persists each OOS RunReport (C18), and prints
a stitched summary line.

Two plan deviations, both compiler-forced and consistent with siblings: added
#[derive(Debug)] to WindowRoller (the RED tests' unwrap_err needs Ok: Debug; the
sibling types already derive Debug); removed a now-redundant test-module
SyntheticSpec import after Step 2 hoisted it to the top-level use.

Verification: cargo test --workspace green (aura-engine 152 incl. walkforward 9 +
mc 9, aura-cli 14); clippy --workspace --all-targets -D warnings exit 0; cargo doc
--workspace --no-deps clean.

refs #69
2026-06-15 15:22:12 +02:00
Brummel c9f0e438e1 feat(aura-engine): seeded source + live RunManifest.seed (C12 seed-as-input)
A seeded source whose stream is fully determined by a u64 seed, making
RunManifest.seed a live captured input instead of the dead 0 it was. This is
C12's reconciliation of stochastic runs with C1: a run is bit-identical for a
fixed seed (the seed is a captured input, not hidden nondeterminism), and a
different seed gives a different-but-reproducible run. Precondition for the
Monte-Carlo family (#68) and random param-sweep (#52).

Engine (aura-engine):
- SplitMix64: a ~10-line private, dependency-free PRNG. Chosen over a rand-family
  crate for guaranteed bit-stability across toolchains/crate versions — the whole
  value of seed-as-input is reproducibility, and a crate whose algorithm is not
  version-stable would silently break a recorded seed on a dep bump. No new direct
  dep.
- SyntheticSpec + source(seed) -> impl Source: the Fn(u64) -> impl Source contract
  (Fork B — seed at the data-generation edge, outside the engine graph). Returns a
  Source, never a Vec, so the MC family can re-seed N times without materializing
  N streams. First cut collects to a VecSource internally; the signature does not
  name Vec, so a lazy generator is a drop-in replacement. Re-exported from lib.rs
  beside VecSource.

CLI (aura-cli):
- sim_optimal_manifest gains a seed: u64 param recorded into the manifest (the
  single Fork B capture site). All four existing seed-free callers (run_sample,
  run_sample_real, the sweep grid-report, run_macd) pass 0 unchanged — their
  determinism tests stay green.
- A test-only run_sample_seeded + SeededTrace exercise a live seed and expose the
  drained sink trace, so the three e2e tests assert bit-identity at the trace
  level (strictly stronger than the folded 3-field metrics).

Tests (RED-first): 2 engine producer tests (same-seed identical / different-seed
differs) + 3 cli e2e tests (bit-identical trace, different-seed metrics differ,
seed recorded in manifest). Full workspace green; clippy -D warnings clean.

Errata vs plan 0042 (two compile-forced deviations, neither alters the spec
contract):
- source returns `impl Source + use<>`: under edition 2024 a bare `impl Source`
  captures the &self lifetime, which blocks boxing as Box<dyn Source + 'static>
  for run() (E0597). The source owns its data, so use<> (captures nothing) is
  correct.
- SyntheticSpec is imported inside `#[cfg(test)] mod tests` in main.rs: it is
  used only by the seeded test vehicle, so a top-level import is unused in the
  non-test build under clippy -D warnings.

closes #66
2026-06-15 12:16:03 +02:00